[SMM HRC Daily Review] Bulls Take Profits and Exit, HRC Futures Prices Correct from Highs

Published: Jul 23, 2025 17:40

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Today, HRC futures first declined and then rebounded, with the most-traded contract closing at 3438, up 0.2%. In the spot market, domestic quotes were mainly in the doldrums on a WoW basis. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production this week was 112,700 mt, an increase of 53,200 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production is expected to be 115,500 mt, an increase of 2,800 mt WoW from this week, indicating a decrease in supply pressure. Demand side, with the current price increase, speculative and arbitrage demand is robust. Terminal purchases are mainly on a need-based basis, with an overall positive trading atmosphere, but more involving the mutual transfer of cargo ownership. Cost side, the sustained high level of hot metal provides support for ore prices. The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, with overall strong cost support. Looking ahead, the characteristics of the off-season for terminals are becoming prominent, with social inventory accumulating in most mainstream cities this period. However, the supply-demand pattern remains stronger than expected. Before the macro narrative is disproven, SMM expects that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term, driven by sentiment, but the inventory buildup pattern may limit its upward trend.

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