[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, costs have risen again, with most coking enterprises operating below the break-even point, making it difficult to improve production enthusiasm. Meanwhile, downstream buyers have accelerated their procurement pace, resulting in coking enterprises' coke inventories remaining at a low level. Demand side, the expected decline in pig iron production of steel mill blast furnaces is weak, and there is a rigid demand for coke. Some steel mills with low inventories have a strong willingness to restock coke. In summary, the coke market has shifted to a tight balance. Coupled with the sustained strength in the coking coal market, the short-term coke market may continue to hold up well, with expectations for a third round of price hikes.

[SMM Daily Coke Market Brief Comment] Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong accepted the second round of coke price increases of 50-55 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, the coke price increase has been implemented, repairing the profits of coking enterprises. However, most coking enterprises are still operating at the break-even point, with general production enthusiasm, and there is no immediate increase in coke supply. Demand side, steel mills' profitability is relatively strong, and the market sentiment is bullish. Steel mills maintain high enthusiasm for coke procurement. In summary, the second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations for further increases in the future. In the short term, the coke market will hold up well.

[SMM Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Some steel mills in Shandong and Hebei have accepted the second round of coke price increase, which will be implemented at midnight on July 23, 2025. In terms of supply, coking coal prices have continued to rise recently, making it difficult for coking enterprises to repair their profits, and their production enthusiasm remains average. However, downstream procurement demand continues to be released, accelerating the de-stocking of coke inventory at coking enterprises. Demand side, coking coal and coke futures are leading the gains in the ferrous metals series, with steel prices continuing to rise. Steel mills have low willingness to cut production, showing strong rigid demand for coke. In summary, there is a strong expectation for coking coal prices to rise, providing strong cost support for coke. Coupled with the tight balance in the coke market fundamentals, the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, awaiting the implementation of the second round of price increases.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative imports of sheets & plates in H1 reached 2.4987 million mt, down 17% YoY. By product type, cumulative imports of coated sheets (strips) fell by 38% YoY, cumulative imports of galvanized sheets (strips) fell by 23% YoY, cumulative imports of HRC fell by 23% YoY, and cumulative imports of medium-thickness plates fell by 17% YoY. In addition, cumulative imports of strip steel, cold-rolled steel, and electrical steel sheets (strips) all showed varying degrees of decline YoY.

[SMM Daily Coal and Coke Brief Review] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price increases has been implemented, but some coke enterprises are still operating at a loss and maintaining production restrictions. In terms of demand, steel mills' hot metal production has increased, expanding the rigid demand for coke. Additionally, the construction of the world's largest hydropower station project on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet was initiated on July 19. With the anticipated increase in finished steel demand in the future, steel mills' willingness to cut production further weakens, and they are actively procuring coke. In summary, mainstream coke enterprises have already initiated the second round of price increases, with a range of 50-55 yuan/mt, expected to be implemented on July 22. The coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, with a high likelihood of implementation.

This week, the ferrous metals series market followed a similar trend to that of previous weeks. The night session on Wednesday saw a strong upward rally, with finished steel breaking through previous resistance levels and continuing to fill the gap from early April. Prices experienced a correction at the beginning of the week. In the latter half of the week, market rumors emerged about production restrictions ranging from 30% to 50% in the coking industry in the Wuhai region. Additionally, Indonesia planned to impose export tariffs, and there was a second round of coke price increase proposals scheduled for next week. Coking coal and coke continued to lead the gains in the ferrous metals series market. Meanwhile, amid the off-season, the continuous inventory reduction of finished steel provided support for the market...

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, downstream buyers have been actively procuring, and coke producers have seen good shipments, with coke inventory remaining at a low level. However, coke producers have recently been operating at a loss, with production restrictions in place. Moreover, due to stricter environmental protection measures in the Wuhai region, production restrictions have been intensified. Demand side, steel mill profits have been favorable, with operating rates maintained at a relatively high level. There is a rigid demand for coke from steel mills, and with traders diverting some of the supply, some steel mills are urging for faster deliveries. In summary, the supply of coke has begun to tighten, and cost support remains strong. The coke market may continue to hold up well in the short term, with expectations of further price increases next week.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief] In terms of supply, the first round of coke price increases has been implemented, but coking coal prices rose earlier and to a greater extent, leaving most coke producers still in a slight loss, leading to a slight reduction in supply. Coupled with smooth shipments from coke producers recently, coke inventory is running at low levels. On the demand side, steel mill profits are good, driving active procurement, and traders diverting supplies have led to some mills experiencing limited arrivals and urging for more deliveries. In summary, the fundamentals of the coke market are performing well, with cost support further strengthened. After the initial price increase, some coke producers still expect prices to rise, and the coke market may continue to hold up well in the short term.