Mid-Year Market Review of Copper Concentrate [SMM Analysis]

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At the beginning of this year, copper concentrate spot treatment charges (TCs) officially entered negative territory. The transaction price on the smelter procurement side has declined from single-digit lows at the start of the year to around -$40/mt mid-range, where it has remained since late April with little room for further downside. However, transaction prices on the trader procurement side have repeatedly hit new lows. Due to the supply-demand imbalance in the copper concentrate market, mines have allocated more positions to spot tenders. Additionally, aggressive new entrants in the market this year have driven traders' purchase prices down from -$80/mt to -$140/mt.

On the supply side of copper concentrate, soaring copper prices have alleviated production conflicts in mining regions while providing motivation for Indonesia to relax its copper concentrate export policies. Although supply risks persisted in the first half of the year, conflicts arising from human factors were less pronounced.

• In mid-to-late March, the Indonesian government issued a six-month copper concentrate export permit to Freeport Indonesia. Recently, Freeport Indonesia announced that it had obtained an export license for 1.27 million metric tons of copper concentrate from the Ministry of Trade, allowing shipments to commence. However, a 7.5% royalty fee on the cargo value will be imposed on sellers.

• In late March, a mining accident occurred at the East Zhezkazgan mine (with a daily output of 600 metric tons of copper) in Kazakhstan’s Ulytau region, operated by KAZ Minerals, leading to a suspension of production.

• In early-to-mid April, a worker died at KGHM’s Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile, though this did not affect production plans. The mine has four Larox filter lines, one of which was already scheduled for maintenance before the accident, while the other three continued operating.

• In early June, Teck Resources’ Carmen de Andacollo copper mine experienced mechanical failures, requiring a shutdown of the SAG mill for repairs, with production expected to be suspended for about a month.

• Hudbay Minerals temporarily halted operations at its Snow Lake polymetallic mine in Canada due to frequent forest wildfires, with full production to resume when conditions permit.

• Kamoa-Kakula’s 2025 copper production guidance was revised down to 370,000–420,000 metric tons, a 28% decrease from the initial forecast of 520,000–580,000 metric tons.

• In early July, on the 10th, Tongling Nonferrous’ Mirador copper mine Phase II expansion project progressed as planned, entering heavy-load trial operations.

On the demand side, the divergence in operating rates between domestic and international markets has widened, with expectations of production cuts weakening among Chinese smelters but strengthening overseas.

• In January, Glencore’s Pasar smelter in the Philippines suspended operations until July, with Glencore currently negotiating its sale to the local Villar family.

• Glencore’s Altonorte smelter in Chile underwent a one-month maintenance shutdown due to furnace brick replacement following a major power outage, with the smelting process halted for at least two weeks.

• In late May, Tongling Nonferrous’ Jinxin smelter resumed production.

• In early June, China’s Sinomine Resource Group announced a temporary suspension of operations at its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply.

• In mid-to-late June, JX Nippon Mining & Metals stated that due to deteriorating purchase conditions, it was considering output cuts at its smelters amid declining profitability in copper concentrate processing.

• After multiple delays, India’s Adani copper smelter (500,000 mt annual capacity) restarted operations on June 16.

• In mid-July, Shenghai Chemical’s smelter resumed production after a two-week furnace drying period.