Copper cathode rod exports in June decreased by 1.5% MoM, and are expected to recover in July, maintaining YoY growth[SMM Analysis]

Copper cathode rod exports fell by 1.5% MoM in June and are expected to recover somewhat in July, maintaining YoY growth [SMM analysis]: Affected by weak end-use consumption, the total copper cathode rod exports in June declined slightly as expected last month, but the decline was minor, with the total volume remaining stable and YoY growth expanding. The specific data are as follows:

According to customs data, in terms of the total export volume of copper wire rod, the total export volume of copper wire rod in June decreased by 1.5% MoM and increased by 42.9% YoY. Although the MoM decline was observed, the YoY growth rate expanded.

In June, exports of copper cathode rod (>6mm) continued to reach new highs, with the Southeast Asian market maintaining steady growth. In mid-June, the total exports of copper cathode rod with a maximum cross-sectional area >6mm were 9,827.53 mt, up 8.4% MoM and 50.36% YoY. Looking at specific trade modes for exports, in June 2025, the exports of copper cathode rod with a maximum cross-sectional area >6mm under Processing with Imported Materials were 7,183.14 mt, increasing by 36.22% MoM and 33.75 times YoY. The exports under Processing Trade with Supplied Materials were 2,644.26 mt, decreasing by 25.11% MoM, with zero exports in the same period last year. The exports under Ordinary Trade in June were 258.82 mt, decreasing by 99.9% MoM.

In June 2025, exports of refined copper wire (≤6mm) decreased, dragging down the overall volume. In June, the total export volume of refined copper wire (≤6mm) was 6,803.68 mt, down 13.1% MoM and up 33.4% YoY. In terms of specific export trade modes, the export volume of refined copper wire (≤6mm) under Processing with Imported Materials in June 2025 was 4,674.25 mt, down 5.2% MoM and up 32.75 times YoY. The export volume of refined copper wire (≤6mm) under Processing Trade with Supplied Materials was 603.39 mt, down 48.3% MoM and up 17.36% YoY. In June, the second-largest export volume of refined copper wire (≤6mm) was still Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, at 1,072.09 mt, down 20.77% MoM and up 39.15 times YoY. The export volume under Ordinary Trade was 451.01 mt, up 21.02% MoM and down 89.71% YoY.

In summary, the overall end-use demand was weak in June, with several copper cathode rod enterprises experiencing a certain decline in exports. However, the market demand in Southeast Asia remained stable overall, while the carry-over demand for domestic deep processing increased, resulting in only a slight decline in total exports in June. Entering July, with the fall in copper prices, the foreign trade market improved somewhat, while the domestic carry-over demand still persisted. SMM predicts that the exports of copper wire rod will recover in July.