[SMM HRC Daily Review] Sentiment-Driven, HRC Prices Hold Up Well in the Short Term

Published: Jul 21, 2025 18:09

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Today, HRC futures prices surged strongly, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,394, up 2.19%. In the spot market, domestic quotes rose by 80-100 yuan/mt MoM. In terms of supply, some steel mills in north China initiated annual maintenance of rolling lines this week, leaving room for further production cuts and relatively limited supply pressure. Demand side, with the current price increase, speculative and arbitrage demand is robust, while terminal procurement is mainly on a need-based basis, creating an overall favorable trading atmosphere. Cost side, the sustained high level of hot metal supports ore prices, and the first round of coke price increases has already been implemented, providing overall strong cost support. Looking ahead, current futures market transactions are still sentiment-driven. The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station project over the weekend is expected to bring a certain amount of steel demand. Considering the long construction period, the annual steel consumption may fall short of expectations. However, in the short term, it is a relatively positive signal. Therefore, before the fundamental off-season proves stronger-than-usual and the macro narrative is not disproven, the most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to hold up well in the short term.

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