[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Ferrochrome prices remain stable with no fluctuations; chrome ore market operates steadily

On July 18, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was also 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The offer for high-carbon ferrochrome from South Africa was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), and from Kazakhstan, it was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis.

This week, the ferrochrome market remained stable with no adjustments to the offers. The unexpectedly flat steel tender price in July supported ferrochrome prices. Coupled with the previous supply gap of ferrochrome, producers had limited willingness to adjust prices, with offers concentrated in the 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content) range. As we entered mid-month and approached the steel tender pricing cycle, the market atmosphere was relatively calm, with most waiting for the next round of steel tenders. In terms of supply, the unexpectedly flat steel tender price in July improved ferrochrome producers' profits, leading to active resumption and increase in production, with a significant increase in output. However, downstream stainless steel prices were low, and the market was sluggish, facing losses. There might be a sentiment to drive down prices, and the support for prices from the supply-demand balance of ferrochrome gradually weakened. The market was relatively pessimistic about the next month's steel tender, with the mainstream view expecting a decline of 200-300 yuan/mt (50% metal content). On the cost side, the immediate smelting cost of ferrochrome remained stable, and chrome ore prices had no fluctuations. However, there was an expectation for coke prices to rise slightly, and the subsequent smelting cost of ferrochrome might increase slightly. It was expected that the ferrochrome market would remain stable in the short term before the new round of steel tender pricing.

In terms of raw materials, on July 18, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 54-55 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 49-51 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder was 56-57 yuan/mtu; and the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. On the futures front, 40-42% South African powder remained stable at $265-270/mt.

This week, the chrome ore market mainly operated steadily, with market participants mostly cautious and waiting for the next month's steel tender pricing before making plans. Actual transactions were limited. Mid-week, South African chrome ore futures were once again quoted flat at $265/mt. On the seller's side, considering the unclear development trend of chrome ore prices in the future, some chrome ore traders recently purchased small quantities to build inventory during the price stability period, planning to make further purchases after the steel tender is finalized. On the buyer's side, ferrochrome producers' raw material purchasing activities slowed down. On the one hand, the previous restocking demand had been mostly met; on the other hand, considering the mainstream bearish view in the steel tender market, producers expected chrome ore prices to decline and worried about the loss of cost advantages. Currently, the inquiry demand for Zimbabwe chrome powder ore and relatively stable-quality South African raw ore was relatively good. Moreover, with the recent low port arrivals of Zimbabwe chrome ore and still tight supply, there was certain support for prices. It is expected that the chrome ore market will operate steadily in the short term. Regarding port inventories, the total chrome ore inventory at ports this week was 2.9185 million mt, up 10.06% WoW. Among them, the total inventory at Tianjin Port was 2.2786 million mt, up 10.65% WoW. This week, outflows from warehouses of chrome ore decreased relatively, mainly due to the slowdown in purchase and stockpiling actions by ferrochrome producers, resulting in limited actual transactions. In contrast, inflows into warehouses increased relatively, with a large amount of chrome ore arriving at ports during the week, driving an increase in chrome ore inventory.