Weekly Overview of Lithium Carbonate Market: Spot Prices Continue to Rise, Intensifying the Battle Between Market Sentiment and Fundamentals [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with the price center gradually rising. The supply and demand fundamentals continued to clash with the sentiment in the futures market, leading to significant market divergence. This week, the average price of SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate was approximately 64,900 yuan/mt, an increase of 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous week's average. Overall, spot prices strengthened, but downstream acceptance remained low. Market transactions were still dominated by traders, with few actual transactions taking place.

At the beginning of the week, market attention was focused on a document from the Yichun City Land and Resources Bureau regarding the approval of eight mining enterprises. It is understood that this had no substantial impact on the current supply of lithium carbonate, and subsequent changes still require continuous monitoring. However, capital speculation in the futures market drove price fluctuations, diverging from the spot market fundamentals. Today, Zangge Mining's Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. received a notice to suspend production due to issues with mining permits, involving a monthly capacity of approximately 1,200 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Although the impact on overall supply was limited, it still triggered a short-term surge in the futures market, with prices briefly approaching the 70,000 yuan/mt threshold.

Currently, downstream material plants tend to meet their basic production needs by increasing long-term agreements or customer-supplied materials, with most enterprises having low acceptance of the current prices. Only some downstream enterprises, supported by just-in-time procurement, have managed sporadic transactions, pushing the price center of lithium carbonate transactions upward. Although upstream lithium chemical enterprises have tentatively adjusted their prices, their quotes remain relatively cautious, with a strong atmosphere of market speculation.

We call on all parties to rationally assess the actual supply and demand situation and avoid blindly following market hype! In the short term, in addition to being driven by fundamentals, the price trend of lithium carbonate still needs to be vigilant against short-term fluctuations caused by capital sentiment and policy disturbances.