US PPI Miss and Domestic Demand Pressures Weigh on Aluminum Prices

Published: Jul 17, 2025 09:46

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Macro side, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged. The US PPI data for June fell short of expectations unexpectedly, primarily dragged down by a decline in service sector prices. Additionally, enterprises chose to absorb part of the costs amid rising import tariffs, reflecting pressure on domestic demand and limited profit margins for enterprises in the US. This not only heightened market concerns about the US economic outlook but also suggested a potential further cooling of the US industrial sector and downstream consumption (such as aluminum-using sectors like real estate and automobiles), indirectly suppressing global aluminum demand expectations. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum declined slightly due to replacement projects, with the proportion of liquid aluminum dropping to 74.78% and an increase in casting ingot volume. Demand side, the off-season atmosphere was strong in most downstream sectors, and the operating rate in aluminum processing remained sluggish. On July 17, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 492,000 mt, a decrease of 9,000 mt from Monday and an increase of 26,000 mt from Thursday last week. Social inventory of aluminum ingots has temporarily shifted to destocking but remains in an inventory buildup phase overall. SMM expects aluminum prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with subsequent focus on changes in inventory and demand.

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