According to SMM statistics, the total production of LiPF6 reached 113,985 mt over the past six months, representing a 46.8% YoY increase compared to the 77,628 mt produced in H1 2024. Meanwhile, the LiPF6 market has exhibited significant phased characteristics. From a data perspective, influenced by the Chinese New Year holiday in January-February 2025, market demand experienced a phased pullback, directly leading to a concurrent decline in LiPF6 production. After the holiday, downstream demand gradually recovered and warmed up, but due to the continuous downward transmission of lithium carbonate prices, LiPF6 prices entered a long-term downward channel. This price trend prompted downstream enterprises to generally adopt a cautious strategy of "just-in-time procurement + low inventory," ultimately resulting in market demand falling short of expectations and relatively small MoM increases in production. Entering May-June, the slowdown in downstream demand growth, coupled with the prolonged low-level operation of LiPF6 prices, continuously compressed the industry's profit margins, forcing LiPF6 enterprises to actively reduce operating rates, digest previously accumulated inventory, and consequently, production declined.
Overall, in H1 2025, LiPF6 enterprises faced dual pressures of slower-than-expected demand growth and continuous profit contraction, with significant operational pressure. Both production and profit performance fell short of expectations. Looking ahead to H2, although the growth in overseas ESS demand and the approaching peak season for end-use consumption will provide some support to market demand, constrained by the unchanged fundamental situation of overcapacity in the LiPF6 industry, the driving force for price increases remains weak. This market pattern may accelerate industry reshuffling and further promote concentration improvement. Top-tier enterprises, leveraging their scale and technological advantages, are expected to expand market share, while small and medium-sized enterprises will face more intense competitive challenges. Currently, enterprises need to closely monitor market changes, promptly adjust production and inventory strategies, and enhance operational flexibility and risk resistance capabilities.
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SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong, 021-51666838
Ma Rui, 021-51595780
Feng Disheng, 021-51666714
Lv Yanlin, 021-20707875
Zhang Haohan, 021-51666752
Zhou Zhicheng, 021-51666711
Wang Zihan, 021-51666914
Wang Jie, 021-51595902
Xu Yang, 021-51666760
Xu Mengqi, 021-20707868
Hu Xuejie, 021-20707858
