[SMM Analysis] In H1, uncertainties in trade policies from a macro perspective, particularly the expected US tariffs, became a key force stirring the market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the global economy and the trend of the US dollar also provided support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, global copper ore supply was tight, and copper concentrate TCs declined. Domestically, demand was strong initially but weakened later, while overseas demand showed a divergent trend.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles in H1 2025] On July 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that China's new energy vehicle production reached 6.968 million units from January to June 2025, representing a cumulative year-on-year (YoY) increase of 41.4%. SMM forecasts that China's new energy vehicle production will reach 16.29 million units in 2025, with 9.32 million units produced in H2 2025.

[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, against the backdrop of warrant outflows, spot premiums may fall further.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China traded at a discount of 150 yuan/mt to 90 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction price ranged from 77,740 yuan/mt to 77,850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 77,795 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,610/mt, fluctuating rangebound in early trading before hitting a low of $9,588/mt.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,610/mt, fluctuating rangebound in the early session to a low of $9,588/mt during the session, before surging straight up to a high of $9,664/mt. After pulling back at the end of the session, it continued to rise, eventually closing at $9,637/mt, down 0.21%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest reached 268,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 77,810 yuan/mt, rising slightly in the early session before pulling back to a low of 77,770 yuan/mt during the session, and then surging straight up to a high of 78,090 yuan/mt. After pulling back at the end of the session, it continued to rise to a high before pulling back again, forming an "M" shape. It eventually closed at 77,950 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 22,000 lots, and open interest reached 158,000 lots.