iconJul 16, 2025 08:46
Source:SMM
Macro side, the US CPI in June recorded the largest MoM increase in five months, and tariffs may be stimulating inflation. However, overall, the US faces the risk of stagflation, which will weigh on the US dollar and be bullish for copper prices. In addition, as Trump's sanctions on Russia come with a 50-day buffer period, easing market concerns about any immediate supply disruptions, oil prices continued to decline. However, OPEC stated that oil demand would remain "very strong" in Q3, which is bullish for copper prices. Fundamentals side, the supply side is under certain pressure. Today is the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2507 contract, and suppliers are fatigued with quoting prices. The overall supply rhythm has fluctuated due to contract rollover. Demand side, downstream consumption sentiment has been poor recently. Even though suppliers adjusted their premium quotes, it failed to effectively boost transactions. Price side, the US Treasury Secretary hinted that the "situation is good" in China-US negotiations, and we should continue to monitor tariff developments. It is expected that copper prices will still have some upside room today.

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