[SMM Hot Topic: Steel Companies' Semi-Annual Earnings Forecast Released, with Half in Profit and Half in Loss] In the first half of 2025 (H1), downstream demand in the steel industry remained in the doldrums, with steel prices fluctuating downward. The steel industry as a whole faced a situation of "weak supply and demand," with a slow market start and market demand falling short of expectations, thereby affecting the sales performance of various steel companies.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: It is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will experience sideways movement in the short term] Yesterday, HRC futures and spot prices fluctuated rangebound, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,253, down 0.31%. In the spot market, domestic quotes were mostly stable with a few drops, and overall trading performance was average. In overseas markets, HRC export quotes dropped slightly during the day.

On July 15, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Secretary General of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Don Farrell signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Implementation and Review of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.

[SMM Daily Coke and Coking Coal Briefing] Some steel mills in Hebei and Shandong accepted the first round of coke price hikes of 50-55 yuan/mt, effective from July 17. In terms of supply, the recent coke price hikes are awaiting implementation, and downstream buyers have shown high enthusiasm for purchasing, leading to a continuous pullback in coke inventories at coking enterprises. In terms of demand, hot metal production at steel mills has been fluctuating at highs recently, creating a rigid demand for coke. Additionally, steel mill profits are currently moderate, maintaining stable procurement of coke. In summary, coke costs are well supported, and downstream finished steel demand is recovering. Some steel mills are urging deliveries, and the fundamentals of coke continue to improve. In the short term, the coke market may continue to hold up well.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In the first half of this year (H1), China's GDP increased by 5.3% YoY; the value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.4% YoY; the total fixed-asset investment nationwide increased by 2.8% YoY; and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% YoY.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: Iron Ore Prices May Maintain a Strong and Volatile Trend] Yesterday morning, the Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures continued to rally, breaking through the 770 high to reach 772, before pulling back briefly in the afternoon and then rebounding again. The most-traded contract I2509 ultimately closed at 767, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Traders sold goods according to market conditions. Steel mills purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 750-754 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from yesterday's high; in the Tangshan region, the transaction price of PB fines was around 765 yuan/mt, maintaining stability compared to yesterday's price. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today,

SMM Steel News on July 15th: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of resources in the mainstream market this week were 264,000 mt, up 17,000 mt from the shipment level of the previous week. By market:

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, some coke enterprises maintained production restrictions to a certain extent due to losses, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement increased. Coke enterprises had smooth shipments, and their own coke inventory continued to decline. Demand side, pig iron production in steel mills' blast furnaces remained high, creating a rigid demand for coke. Additionally, traders diverted cargo sources, and the overall enthusiasm for downstream procurement was good. In summary, there is a high possibility of implementing the first round of coke price increases, and the short-term coke market may hold up well.

On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.678 million mt of steel in June 2025, a decrease of 900,000 mt MoM, down 8.5% MoM. From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million mt, up 9.2% YoY. In June, China imported 470,000 mt of steel, a decrease of 11,000 mt MoM, down 2.3% MoM. From January to June, China's cumulative steel imports amounted to 3.023 million mt, down 16.4% YoY.