According to SMM statistics, as of July 17, the aluminum billet inventory at domestic mainstream consumption areas stood at 156,000 mt, a decrease of 5,000 mt from Monday and a decrease of 4,000 mt from Thursday last week. In terms of outflows from warehouses, the total outflows of domestic aluminum billet from July 7 to July 13 amounted to 44,200 mt, showing an increase of 9,400 mt MoM. Since the inventory buildup turning point was established in mid-June, the aluminum billet inventory level has continued to rise, reaching the highest level for the same period in three years. However, a slight destocking of aluminum billet was achieved within the week. Does this indicate that the inventory buildup turning point for aluminum billet has already formed? This slight destocking of aluminum billet was mainly driven by the impact of production cuts in aluminum billet and the restocking of downstream rigid demand. Since entering July, aluminum billet manufacturers have been receiving news of production cuts due to the accumulation of in-plant inventory and unoptimistic order expectations, aiming to alleviate operational pressure on funds. Meanwhile, the scale of production cuts in regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guizhou continues to expand, resulting in fewer arrivals in South China and Nanchang areas within the week. Despite the off-season atmosphere in the market, downstream players primarily focused on digesting raw material inventory in the early stage due to the high aluminum prices. This week, the price center has loosened somewhat, stimulating downstream rigid demand restocking, thereby driving down the aluminum billet inventory. SMM believes that while the production cuts by aluminum billet manufacturers have alleviated the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current restocking of rigid demand is more of a short-term driver, and the main theme of the downstream off-season has not changed. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, the aluminum billet inventory will still maintain the rhythm of inventory buildup, and the overall trend has not significantly changed. SMM expects that the aluminum billet inventory will operate within the range of 150,000-180,000 mt next week.

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Macro Caution Combined with Loose Supply and Demand, Aluminum Prices Remain in the Doldrums]

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Social Inventory Destocking Combined with Downstream Purchases, Premium Transactions Against Online Prices in Multiple Regions Today] On the inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 466,000 mt on July 17, a destocking of 9,000 mt from the previous trading day. In the short term, the casting ingot volume in the spot market has increased, providing some supply to the market. Despite the potential for destocking due to uneven arrivals of aluminum ingots during the week, considering in-transit cargoes, aluminum ingot inventory is still expected to experience a buildup. Additionally, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market has eased somewhat, and spot premiums and discounts may fluctuate.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,610/mt, fluctuating rangebound in early trading before hitting a low of $9,588/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic Positive Factors and Cost Support Offset Overseas Pressure, Inventory "Short-Term Destocking, Long-Term Buildup" and Demand as Key Variables] On the macro side, the domestic positive atmosphere remains unchanged; the US PPI data for June unexpectedly fell short of expectations, primarily dragged down by a decline in service prices. Additionally, enterprises chose to absorb some costs amid rising import tariffs, reflecting pressure on domestic demand and limited profit margins for enterprises in the US. This not only intensified market concerns about the US economic outlook but also suggested a potential further cooling of US industrial and downstream consumption (such as aluminum-using sectors like real estate and automobiles), indirectly suppressing global aluminum demand expectations. On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly decreased due to replacement projects, with the proportion of liquid aluminum dropping to 74.78% and an increase in casting ingot volume. Cost side, there has been an upward trend recently due to rising alumina prices. Demand side, most downstream sectors are experiencing a strong off-season atmosphere, with aluminum prices rising during the off-season, leading to a more pronounced suppression of demand. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains sluggish. On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption areas was 492,000 mt, a decrease of 9,000 mt from Monday and an increase of 26,000 mt from Thursday last week. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has temporarily shifted to destocking but remains in an overall inventory buildup trend. SMM expects aluminum prices to consolidate at high levels in the short term, with subsequent focus on changes in inventory and demand.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Overseas Prices Remain High, Immediate Losses from ADC12 Imports Widen] On Wednesday, aluminum prices continued to rebound slightly, with secondary aluminum market quotes remaining stable. The SMM ADC12 price held steady at 20,000 yuan/mt. Currently, demand continues to weaken, and downstream procurement sentiment remains low, leading to a decline in orders for secondary aluminum enterprises and sluggish transaction performance. Overall, the undersupply of raw materials provides strong support for secondary aluminum alloy prices, but the weakness on the demand side restricts price increases. It is expected that ADC12 prices will maintain a fluctuating rangebound pattern in the short term.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 489,000 metric tons in June 2025, down 19.84% year-on-year and down 10.60% month-on-month; the cumulative export from January to June was 2.919 million tonnes, down 8.00% year-on-year.