[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Social Inventory Destocking Combined with Downstream Purchases, Premium Transactions Against Online Prices in Multiple Regions Today] On the inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 466,000 mt on July 17, a destocking of 9,000 mt from the previous trading day. In the short term, the casting ingot volume in the spot market has increased, providing some supply to the market. Despite the potential for destocking due to uneven arrivals of aluminum ingots during the week, considering in-transit cargoes, aluminum ingot inventory is still expected to experience a buildup. Additionally, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market has eased somewhat, and spot premiums and discounts may fluctuate.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,610/mt, fluctuating rangebound in early trading before hitting a low of $9,588/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic Positive Factors and Cost Support Offset Overseas Pressure, Inventory "Short-Term Destocking, Long-Term Buildup" and Demand as Key Variables] On the macro side, the domestic positive atmosphere remains unchanged; the US PPI data for June unexpectedly fell short of expectations, primarily dragged down by a decline in service prices. Additionally, enterprises chose to absorb some costs amid rising import tariffs, reflecting pressure on domestic demand and limited profit margins for enterprises in the US. This not only intensified market concerns about the US economic outlook but also suggested a potential further cooling of US industrial and downstream consumption (such as aluminum-using sectors like real estate and automobiles), indirectly suppressing global aluminum demand expectations. On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly decreased due to replacement projects, with the proportion of liquid aluminum dropping to 74.78% and an increase in casting ingot volume. Cost side, there has been an upward trend recently due to rising alumina prices. Demand side, most downstream sectors are experiencing a strong off-season atmosphere, with aluminum prices rising during the off-season, leading to a more pronounced suppression of demand. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains sluggish. On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption areas was 492,000 mt, a decrease of 9,000 mt from Monday and an increase of 26,000 mt from Thursday last week. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has temporarily shifted to destocking but remains in an overall inventory buildup trend. SMM expects aluminum prices to consolidate at high levels in the short term, with subsequent focus on changes in inventory and demand.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Overseas Prices Remain High, Immediate Losses from ADC12 Imports Widen] On Wednesday, aluminum prices continued to rebound slightly, with secondary aluminum market quotes remaining stable. The SMM ADC12 price held steady at 20,000 yuan/mt. Currently, demand continues to weaken, and downstream procurement sentiment remains low, leading to a decline in orders for secondary aluminum enterprises and sluggish transaction performance. Overall, the undersupply of raw materials provides strong support for secondary aluminum alloy prices, but the weakness on the demand side restricts price increases. It is expected that ADC12 prices will maintain a fluctuating rangebound pattern in the short term.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 489,000 metric tons in June 2025, down 19.84% year-on-year and down 10.60% month-on-month; the cumulative export from January to June was 2.919 million tonnes, down 8.00% year-on-year.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Lunchtime Review: Spot Markets Stabilize in Multiple Regions Today, with Absolute Prices Retracing and Downstream Purchases Showing Slight Improvement] On the inventory side, according to SMM's data on domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories stood at 335,500 mt on July 16, a destocking of 6,500 mt from the previous trading day. In the short term, the volume of casting ingots in the spot market has increased, providing some supply to the market. Despite the possibility of destocking due to uneven arrivals of aluminum ingots during the week, considering in-transit cargoes, aluminum ingot inventories are still expected to experience inventory buildup. Moreover, the off-season sentiment in the spot market is strong, with weak downstream demand and significant production cuts. It is difficult for purchases to see a qualitative improvement, and spot premiums/discounts in the market may fluctuate.

Futures market: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,635.5/mt, initially fluctuated downward to hit a session low of $9,598/mt, then steadily climbed upward and reached a session high of $9,657.5/mt near the close, finally closing at $9,657.5/mt with a 0.15% gain.