SMM Aluminum Inventory: Off-Season Turning Point with Continuous Buildup

Published: Jul 15, 2025 13:34

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I. Key Points on Current SMM Aluminum Inventory

The turning point has emerged, and inventory buildup continues: The inventory turning point in the off-season emerged at the end of June. The trend of aluminum ingot inventory buildup became clear in the second half of July, and it is expected that the inventory will reach 550,000-600,000 mt by the end of July.

Main reasons for inventory buildup: Since the end of June, production cuts in aluminum billets have led to an expected decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum in July, resulting in an increase in casting ingot volume. The supply-side increment of aluminum ingots is significant, and the increase in arrivals has become the core driver of inventory buildup in the off-season. The aluminum price decline on Monday and the unexpected inventory buildup mainly stemmed from the short-term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend.

Mid-week fluctuations are normal: Under the overall trend of inventory buildup, occasional destocking during mid-week is due to uneven arrivals and warehousing rhythms, which does not change the overall direction.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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