[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Amid Supply Bottlenecks and Macro Uncertainties] On the afternoon of August 6, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 267,450 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.49% from the previous settlement price, with the intraday amplitude narrowing to the range of 266,000-267,700 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,350/mt, up 0.15% from the early Asian session, but the gains were curbed in the European session due to the rebound of the US dollar.

New Zealand's Q2 unemployment rate rises to highest level in nearly five years; SHFE tin prices remain high and rangebound [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Macro: (1) New Zealand's Q2 unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly five years, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to resume interest rate cuts. Statistics New Zealand announced on Wednesday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, marking the highest level since Q3 2020. Employment fell by 0.1% from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The New Zealand economy has been impacted by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their effects on global trade, with business confidence declining, manufacturing and services sectors contracting, and the real estate market remaining sluggish in Q2. The RBNZ is expected to resume interest rate cuts on August 20, after pausing them in July. Most economists predict a 25-basis-point cut to 3%. (2) Tariffs - ① Trump: Plans to announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips in the coming week, with pharmaceutical tariffs reaching up to 250%. Will significantly raise tariffs on India within the next 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. ② The US trade balance in June recorded a deficit of -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Macro Disruptions Intensify, Tin Market Awaits Breakthrough Opportunities] On August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,490 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 1,340 yuan from the previous day, representing a 0.5% increase. Prices fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt pivot during the day, reaching a high of 267,650 yuan/mt and a low of 265,080 yuan/mt. Trading volume stood at 42,925 lots, while open interest decreased by 824 lots to 26,388 lots, indicating cautious battles between bulls and bears at key price levels. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was trading around $33,175/mt.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Market in Fluctuating Game: Price Resilience Amid Tight Balance in Ore Supply and Intertwined Macro Bullish and Bearish Factors] At midday on August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,180 yuan/mt, rising slightly by 1,030 yuan from the night session of the previous day, with a gain of 0.39%. The intraday price fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt level, as bulls and bears cautiously engaged in a game amid the contradiction between the expected production resumption in Myanmar and weak demand. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was temporarily quoted at around $33,390/mt, closing down 0.27% overnight to $33,125/mt, reflecting a rise in wait-and-see sentiment in overseas markets.

SHFE tin prices fluctuated at lows during the night session, awaiting guidance from macro factors. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Under the continuous efforts of the "package" of policies, Zhengzhou's real estate market is showing a positive development trend. Multiple local real estate practitioners stated that their businesses are continuously improving, with an increase in customer inquiries and viewings. The market has heated up significantly, with an average daily trading volume of 70 to 80 units on workdays and no less than 60 units at the minimum. On weekends, the trading volume is even higher, basically exceeding 100 units. Data from the Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration also reflects this change. From January to June, Zhengzhou's commercial housing sales area reached 9.97 million m², with a growth rate 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average. The selling price of commercial housing was 10,659 yuan/m², up 1.42% YoY. (2) Tariffs - ① The EU will suspend its trade retaliatory measures against the US for six months. The EU is waiting for Trump to take action on car tariffs and exemptions this week. ② Trump stated that he would significantly raise tariff rates on India due to the country's purchase of Russian crude oil. India responded that the accusation was completely unjustified.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Support vs. Inventory Buildup Pressure - Tin Prices Hover at Highs] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 265,390 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.43% from the previous day's settlement price, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 264,980-267,140 yuan/mt. The macro front dominated short-term sentiment, as the US July non-farm payrolls data came in unexpectedly weak (with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 110,000). The combined data for the previous two months was revised downward by 258,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's expectation for a US Fed interest rate cut in September surged to 89%, causing the US dollar index to drop sharply and pushing up dollar-denominated non-ferrous metals in general. On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration's move to raise tariffs on multiple countries to 35% triggered trade risk-aversion sentiment, with some funds flowing into industrial metals. However, tin prices were constrained by the supply-demand imbalance in the industry, with gains weaker than those of safe-haven assets like gold.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,626/mt, initially touched a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and ended rangebound at $9,607/mt by the close, down 1.26%.

SHFE tin prices opened slightly higher in the night session, and may continue the fluctuating trend. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The Consumer Goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a meeting to promote the implementation of new standards for e-bikes and the supply of new car models, comprehensively scheduling the R&D and mass production launch of new standard vehicles by producers, and coordinating to resolve difficulties and problems encountered during the process. The meeting emphasized that e-bike producers should deeply recognize the importance and urgency of implementing the new standards, implement them without compromise, accelerate the launch and supply of new standard vehicles to meet market demand. (2) Tariffs: ① The US Trade Representative stated that the new round of tariffs is "basically set" and will not be adjusted in the current negotiations. ② The Canadian Trade Minister stated that it is expected that Prime Minister Trudeau and Trump will hold talks in the coming days. Reaching an agreement to reduce some tariffs is a "choice." ③ Switzerland is willing to make concessions in its trade proposals with the US to reduce the 39% tariff.