Domestic Aluminum Market Faces Challenges from Overseas Tariffs, Capacity Adjustments, and Weak Demand

Published: Jul 14, 2025 10:52

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Macro side, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged, while the impact of overseas tariffs requires vigilance. On the fundamental side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly decreased due to replacement projects, with the proportion of liquid aluminum dropping to 74.78% and the volume of casting ingots increasing. Cost side, there has been an upward trend recently due to the rising prices of alumina. Demand side, the off-season atmosphere is strong in most downstream sectors, with domestic aluminum prices rising during the off-season, which has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on demand. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains sluggish. Additionally, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots has once again shifted to an inventory buildup trend. SMM predicts that domestic aluminum prices will be in the doldrums in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor changes in inventory and demand in the future.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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