Rising risk aversion sentiment weighed on copper prices, causing them to fall last Friday evening [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Copper prices climbed to around US$14,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reaching their highest level in two months as traders continued to monitor record inflows of copper into the United States ahead of an anticipated decision on refined copper import tariffs. According to foreign media reports, more than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at U.S. ports during July, representing the largest monthly inflow recorded by IHS Markit since it began tracking the data in 2014. The surge has significantly increased inventories at U.S. warehouses and ports while reducing the volume of metal available to consumers in other regions. The inflows have continued despite uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports. Although the U.S. Commerce Department was expected to submit its recommendations by the end of June, no formal decision has yet been announced. The sustained premium of U.S. copper prices over LME prices has continued to support profitable arbitrage opportunities, encouraging traders to redirect material into the U.S. market. Market Impact: The concentration of copper inventories in the United States is tightening physical availability elsewhere, reinforcing an already constrained global market. With copper prices remaining near historic highs and demand supported by electrification, power infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, any tariff decision that further alters global trade flows could intensify regional supply imbalances and provide additional upside for international copper prices.

KPC has set the August Kuwait Sulphur Price (KSP) at $865/mt FOB, down by $85/mt from the July KSP of $950/mt; QatarEnergy has kept its August Qatar Sulphur Price (QSP) unchanged at $890/mt FOB from July; ADNOC has kept its August official selling price (OSP) for the Indian subcontinent unchanged at $1,000/mt FOB Ruwais from July.

Botswana's Khoemacau copper mine increased copper production in the second quarter of 2026 as improved ore grades offset lower mining volumes, while construction of its major expansion project continued to advance. According to MMG Limited's second-quarter production report, Khoemacau produced 11,423 tonnes of copper in concentrate during the three months ended 30 June, representing a 7% increase from the previous quarter and remaining broadly in line with production achieved in the corresponding period of 2025. Although ore milled declined year-on-year, the operation benefited from improved copper grades of 1.62%, up from 1.59% a year earlier, as mining progressed into higher-grade sections of the Zone 5 orebody. Metallurgical recovery remained stable at 88.2%. MMG said lower ore mined volumes reflected earlier development delays and reduced equipment availability. However, the company expects operational performance to strengthen during the second half of 2026 as new mining equipment is deployed, refurbished fleet units are commissioned, and access to higher-grade mining areas continues. The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 48,000-53,000 tonnes while lowering C1 cash cost guidance to US$1.70-US$2.00/lb, supported by stronger silver prices. Construction of Khoemacau's expansion project also progressed during the quarter. The project is designed to increase annual copper production to 130,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate and more than 4 million ounces of silver, with first concentrate expected in the first half of 2028. Continued progress at Khoemacau reinforces Botswana's position as an emerging copper producer at a time of tightening global supply. The expansion is expected to add meaningful new copper capacity over the medium term, supporting long-term supply growth as demand from electrification, renewable energy and electric vehicle manufacturing continues to accelerate.