[SMM Analysis]Post-Holiday Surge in Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures and Spot Prices: Focus on Costs, Inventory, and Demand Sustainability

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Heat Up and Fundamentals Remain Solid, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs]

SMM's monthly production data for various metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Heat Up, Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs in Short Term] Pre-holiday (September 30) night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,765 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 20,770 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,680 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, down 0.43% from the previous close. Trading volume was 68,700 lots, and open interest was 191,000 lots. Yesterday (October 8), LME aluminum opened at $2,743/mt, reached a high of $2,762/mt, a low of $2,737.5/mt, and closed at $2,750.5/mt. Macro side, internationally, according to CME forecasts, the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.4%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 94.6%; for December, the probability of maintaining rates is 0.6%, with probabilities for cumulative cuts at 25 basis points (16.0%) and 50 basis points (83.4%). (Bullish★) Domestically, on October 9, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,100 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations via fixed amount, interest rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a maturity of 3 months. (Bullish★)

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Prices Expected to Continue Fluctuating Rangebound in the Short Term; Post-Holiday Focus on Raw Material and Inventory Changes] In the short term, aluminum scrap costs continue to support ADC12 prices, but extended downstream holidays and inventory buildup will limit upside room. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating rangebound trend. Subsequent attention should focus on raw material supply conditions, inventory changes, and the pace of post-holiday demand recovery.