According to the latest monthly survey data from SMM, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in June 2025 was 390,000 mt, a decrease of 27,000 mt from May. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in June was recorded at 60%, down 2% MoM and up 5% YoY. Overall, despite weak downstream purchasing, in-plant inventory was in the initial stage of inventory buildup, coupled with the task of liquid aluminum alloying, the aluminum rod supply side remained at highs in June. However, as the off-season atmosphere in the downstream sector became increasingly pronounced, with market purchasing significantly weakening, many plants announced production cuts and maintenance of equipment in mid-to-late June. It is expected that there will be a pullback in the aluminum rod supply side in July, and the pressure of market supply surplus may ease slightly.

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry in June 2025 was 52.01%, down 3.4% MoM from May and 4.65% YoY from June last year. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises decreased by 2.4% MoM to 68.53%, that of medium-sized enterprises fell by 3.2 MoM to 45.76%, and that of small enterprises decreased by 10.2% MoM to 16.95%.

During this period, the tender pricing for July by benchmark downstream primary aluminum enterprises was finalized, and aluminum fluoride market prices continued to weaken. The tender price for benchmark enterprises in July decreased by 30 yuan/mt compared to the previous period, with a range of 9,600-9,670 yuan/mt. Currently, the aluminum fluoride market continues to exhibit a pattern of weak supply and demand: After entering July, prices of raw materials and finished products have declined simultaneously, with no improvement in corporate profitability. Most enterprises are experiencing losses, with operating rates remaining low and unlikely to improve in the short term. There is currently no positive support on the demand side, and the market is primarily transitioning with stable prices. Coupled with the expectation of declining raw material prices in July, it is anticipated that aluminum fluoride prices will continue to weaken next month.

During the period, a certain electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Shandong has adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anodes in July 2025, with a MoM decrease of 190 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, a large domestic prebaked anode sales company has also synchronously reduced its sales pricing, with a MoM decrease of 239 yuan/mt. The petroleum coke market for raw materials has experienced significant fluctuations during the period, but the overall price center has risen, providing some support for prebaked anode costs. According to SMM data, as of July 7, the comprehensive cost of prebaked anodes in China has decreased to 4,748 yuan/mt, an increase of 1.67% from June 6. Although prebaked anode prices in July are expected to decline, the decline is smaller than anticipated, leaving some room for enterprise profitability. If calculated based on a one-month production cycle, the profitability of the prebaked anode industry continues to improve, with a theoretical MoM profitability improvement of approximately 70 yuan/mt. Most prebaked anode enterprises are in a state of marginal profitability. Entering July, the low-sulphur petroleum coke market continues to show a slight upward trend, while the upward momentum in the medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke markets is significantly insufficient. According to SMM, this round of price increases is mainly supported by changes in downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment, particularly the stockpiling in the anode material market, which has rapidly boosted market sentiment. However, there has been no significant improvement in actual downstream demand. Therefore, as subsequent sentiment gradually cools, there may be a risk of high-level price corrections for petroleum coke. Considering the above factors, SMM predicts that prebaked anode prices will remain in the doldrums next month.

According to SMM statistics, in terms of domestic aluminum billet inventory in two regions, Guangdong's aluminum billet inventory stood at 72,600 mt, while Wuxi's aluminum billet inventory was 22,100 mt, totaling 94,700 mt, a decrease of 1,700 mt MoM. Supported by low inventory levels during the week, SHFE aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at highs. However, constrained by high aluminum prices, downstream consumption momentum was suppressed. Additionally, the pressure on the aluminum billet supply side intensified, with suppliers intending to cash in at high prices to maintain capital flow. Nevertheless, downstream buyers were not receptive to high aluminum prices. The impact of the off-season, coupled with high temperatures affecting production shifts, resulted in insufficient downstream rigid demand. Amid oversupply, aluminum billet processing fees mostly hovered around parity, with sluggish market transactions. As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum billet market in Foshan reported processing fees of 20/70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt; Wuxi reported processing fees of 60/110 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt; and Nanchang reported processing fees of -30/20 yuan/mt, unchanged. (Unit: yuan/mt)

[SMM Spot Aluminum Lunchtime Review: Weak Weekend Effect, Spot Aluminum Market Continues to "Struggle"] SMM reported on July 11: In the morning session, the center of SHFE aluminum prices pulled back, falling to around 20,850 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound below the daily average line. During the off-season, demand in east China was weak, with daily shipments significantly exceeding spot orders for purchases, resulting in transactions around -10 yuan/mt against the SMM average price. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,790 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a discount of 70 yuan/mt against the July contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

According to SMM's latest monthly data survey, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in June 2025 was 390,000 mt, a decrease of 27,000 mt from May. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in June was recorded at 60%, down 2% MoM and up 5% YoY. Overall, despite weak downstream purchasing, in-plant inventory was in the initial stage of inventory buildup. Coupled with the task of liquid aluminum alloying, the aluminum rod supply side remained at highs in June. However, due to the increasingly evident off-season atmosphere in the downstream sector and significantly weakened market purchasing, many plants announced production cuts and equipment maintenance in mid-to-late June. It is expected that the aluminum rod supply side will pull back in July, and the pressure of supply surplus in the market may ease slightly.

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry in June 2025 was 52.01%, down 3.4% MoM from May and down 4.65% YoY from June last year. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises decreased by 2.4% MoM to 68.53%, that of medium-sized enterprises fell by 3.2 MoM to 45.76%, and that of small enterprises decreased by 10.2% MoM to 16.95%.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Disruptions Combined with Weak Demand in Off-Season Intensify Aluminum Price Game amid Cost and Inventory Support] On the macro front, Trump once again pressured the US Fed to cut interest rates, fueling expectations for market easing policies. Sino-US economic and trade communications remained neutral, but Trump's tariff hike on 14 countries (effective August 1) postponed the negotiation window, with uncertainties in trade frictions still suppressing global aluminum trade liquidity and exacerbating supply chain risk-aversion sentiment. On the cost side of the aluminum industry, costs declined during the week. As of Thursday this week, the domestic instant and full average cost of electrolytic aluminum stood at approximately 16,550 yuan/mt, up around 80 yuan/mt from last Thursday, mainly due to a slight increase in alumina spot prices, driving a minor rebound in costs. As a result, aluminum smelter profits decreased by around 120 yuan/mt from last week. On the demand side, overall, the off-season atmosphere was strong in most downstream sectors. Aluminum prices rose during the off-season, exerting a more pronounced inhibitory effect on demand. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remained sluggish. Production schedules for PV modules were expected to be largely stable MoM in July, but due to frame manufacturers operating at a loss, some enterprises voluntarily reduced orders, leading to a pullback in operating rates. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory declined again yesterday, largely due to shipping rhythms, with fewer arrivals. The inventory buildup trend once again shifted to destocking, providing good support for aluminum futures and spot prices, but its sustainability remains to be verified. Overall, the domestic favorable atmosphere on the macro front remains unchanged, while the impact of overseas tariffs requires vigilance. On the fundamental front, the fluctuating state of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season is evident. Spot premiums/discounts continue to widen, and subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand.