[SMM HRC Daily Review] Currently, sentiment driven by capital. Be vigilant about the risk of HRC prices jumping initially and then pulling back next week.

Published: Jul 11, 2025 17:26
This week, HRC prices initially weakened and then surged strongly, with the market trading atmosphere improving and weekly trading volume increasing. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance of hot-rolled coil production decreased this week, leading to a slight increase in HRC supply. Demand side, the market was less affected by the off-season, with sheets & plates demand showing strong resilience. The weekly apparent demand for HRC increased counter-cyclically. Cost side, coke prices remained stable this week, while iron ore prices surged rapidly, strengthening the cost support for HRC. In terms of news, steel mills in Shanxi Province received notices on crude steel production restrictions, with a province-wide production cut target of 6 million mt, stimulating downstream purchase enthusiasm. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market have eased, and the market performance has been stronger-than-usual during the off-season. Additionally, with coke prices expected to increase and iron ore prices remaining stable, cost support will strengthen. Next week, the most-traded HRC futures contract may trade within the 3,180-3,340 range. It is important to be cautious about the current dominance of capital sentiment, as slight changes can easily trigger a correction in steel prices.

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