How Much Copper Demand Can This Year’s "Misleading" PV Installations Actually Drive?[SMM Analysis]

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The newly released photovoltaic (PV) installation figures from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) have stunned the market. From January to May 2025, China’s cumulative new PV installations reached 197.85 GW, a 150% year-on-year increase. Many were "bluffed" by such high installation numbers, assuming copper consumption driven by the PV sector would skyrocket accordingly. But is that really the case?

According to SMM estimates:

• China’s PV module production from January to May was 237 GW.

• Net exports during the same period were 109.04 GW.

• PV module inventories dropped from 51.01 GW in January to 24.76 GW in May, indicating a 26.25 GW destocking.

• Thus, domestic module demand for the first five months was 154.21 GW (237 GW – 109.04 GW + 26.25 GW).

However, NEA data shows 197.85 GW of new PV installations from January to May 2025. The ~40 GW gap between module demand (154.21 GW) and reported installations (197.85 GW) likely stems from projects pre-registered under the "531 Policy" that will be installed in the second half of the year. Notably, these installations will not be double-counted in future statistics.

SMM’s 2025 PV Installation & Copper Consumption Forecast

• First Half 2025 (H1):

  • Actual installations: 165 GW (vs. 102.5 GW in H1 2024)

  • Copper intensity drops from 2,500 tonnes/GW (2024) to 2,400 tonnes/GW (2025) due to improved PV conversion efficiency.

  • Estimated copper demand: 396,000 tonnes (+54.57% YoY vs. 256,200 tonnes in H1 2024).

• Second Half 2025 (H2):

  • Actual installations: 132.1 GW (vs. 174 GW in H2 2024)

  • Estimated copper demand: 317,000 tonnes (-27.11% YoY vs. 435,000 tonnes in H2 2024).

• Full-Year 2025:

  • Total installations: 297.1 GW

  • Total copper demand: 713,000 tonnes (vs. 675,000 tonnes in 2024), a modest 5.6% YoY increase.