Chile's copper exports may be severely hit by the US tariff decision

Official statements from the Chilean government and trade figures suggest that the copper import tariffs the US plans to impose could have severe impacts.

According to a report from CCTV News Client, on July 9 local time, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that the US would impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025. This move stems from a six-month investigation by the US Department of Commerce into the role of copper in national security.

The investigation also assessed the impact of foreign supplies on the domestic industry. Chile, which supplies approximately 70% of the US's copper imports in 2024, is at the center of this trade storm.

Last year, Chile exported approximately 646,000 mt of copper to the US, valued at over $6 billion. Although China remains Chile's largest copper buyer, the US market is a crucial second export channel for Chilean copper producers.

The new tariffs could disrupt these trade flows, putting pressure on Chilean miners and raising questions about the country's trade strategy.

US tariffs have already driven copper prices to historic highs. This price surge, which began months before the official announcement, reflects a combination of actual supply deficits and speculative trading.

US importers rushed to buy copper before the tariff deadline. From January to April 2025, US copper imports surged by 461,000 mt compared to the same period in 2024. This advance purchasing behavior indicates that market participants are trying to avoid additional costs, but it also suggests potential fluctuations in future inventory adjustments as the new trade environment takes shape.

For Chile, the US market accounts for less than 13% of total copper exports, but the impact of the tariffs goes far beyond mere trade volumes. Copper exports remain Chile's largest source of foreign exchange earnings, totaling $50.86 billion in 2024.

Affected exports could weaken the Chilean peso, drive up local costs, and reduce government revenue. Last year, Chile's public debt accounted for 42% of GDP, with a fiscal deficit of 2.9%. A decline in copper export earnings could further exacerbate public finance pressures.

Chilean officials and industry leaders now face strategic choices. They must weigh the risks of losing the US market against the opportunities of exploring other markets, particularly in Asia and Europe.

Uncertainty over tariff details could deter new investments in Chile's mining sector. The issue of US copper tariffs is not just a matter of trade policy. It concerns how a country's decisions can reshape global supply chains, disrupt established markets, and force major producers like Chile to rethink their strategies.

The coming months will reveal whether Chile adapts to this new environment or if the tariffs will leave lasting scars on its economy.

(Wenhua Comprehensive)