Futures Market: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,718/mt, initially touching a high of $9,744/mt before gradually drifting lower with considerable volatility. Prices tested $9,681.5/mt near session close, eventually settling at $9,682/mt with a 0.23% gain. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots while open interest stood at 280,000 lots. Overnight SHFE copper's most-traded 2508 contract opened at 78,700 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 78,810 yuan/mt before gradually pulling back to 78,510 yuan/mt. Prices fluctuated widely thereafter, testing 78,510 yuan/mt again near closing and finishing at 78,590 yuan/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots and open interest stood at 178,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News: (1) On July 10 local time, US President Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports effective August 1. In an NBC interview, Trump also revealed plans to impose uniform tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trading partners.
(2) China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson responded to inquiries about government measures targeting transshipment and smuggling of critical minerals. The spokesperson stated export controls on strategic minerals like antimony and gallium - which have clear dual-use military/civilian applications - align with international norms. To prevent illicit outflows, China's Export Control Coordination Mechanism Office launched a special crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling in May, with details available on the ministry's website. While fulfilling legitimate civilian demands from other countries, China rigorously reviews export license applications and approves only compliant requests.
Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2507 contract were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt on July 10, averaging 15 yuan/mt premium - down 55 yuan/mt MoM. With firm front-month spreads, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to decline further today.
(2) Guangdong: #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from a 100 yuan/mt discount to a 50 yuan/mt premium on July 10, averaging a 25 yuan/mt discount - up 5 yuan/mt MoM. While copper prices continued to pull back and suppliers held firm on prices, downstream restocking enthusiasm remained muted with trading activity weaker than the previous session.
(3) Imported Copper: Warrant prices stood at $40-50/mt (QP July), averaging $5/mt higher MoM. B/L prices were at $50-74/mt (QP August), averaging $3/mt lower MoM. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at $14-30/mt (QP August), averaging $4/mt higher MoM. Quotations reference cargoes scheduled for mid-to-late July arrival. Overall, the B/L price spread narrowed, the warrant-B/L inversion weakened, and EQ B/L prices remained firm.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 10, secondary copper raw material prices decreased by 200 yuan/mt WoW. Guangdong bare bright copper prices stood at 73,000-73,200 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 889 yuan/mt, decreasing 142 yuan/mt WoW, while the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 650 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices continued to decline yesterday, many secondary copper raw material suppliers proactively contacted secondary copper rod enterprises to sell their materials. However, with unresolved overseas macro uncertainties, numerous secondary copper rod enterprises suspended raw material procurement and plan to resume purchases after copper prices stabilize.
(5) Inventories: On July 10, LME copper cathode inventory rose by 975 mt to 108,100 mt; SHFE warrant inventory increased by 393 mt to 21,729 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, first, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated considerations to initiate interest rate cuts in autumn and anticipates two rate cuts this year, reinforcing market expectations of a US Fed monetary policy pivot. Second, Chile, a major copper mining country, seeks US tariff exemptions for copper. If successful, this would alleviate prior market concerns about potential high tariffs. Currently, no significant new macro variables have emerged, with market focus centered on whether the proposed 50% copper tariffs will be implemented. On the fundamental side, supply-side supplier willingness to sell strengthened ahead of contract rollover, resulting in relatively loose market liquidity. Demand-side procurement sentiment slightly improved due to copper price corrections in the prior two days. As of Thursday, July 10, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased marginally by 800 mt to 143,700 mt from Monday, up 11,900 mt WoW. Weekly inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks but remain 244,900 mt YoY lower than 388,600 mt during the same period last year. Prices: No new macro drivers have emerged. Despite consecutive inventory buildups, low inventory levels continue to support copper prices from the downside.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid relying solely on this information for independent judgments. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
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[This information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessments by SMM's research team. It is provided for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid relying solely on this information for independent judgments. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
