SMM Aluminum Market Weekly Report 20250710

• Hot topic this week: Resilient demand amid dual decline in production; prebaked anode supply may rebound slightly in July
• Forecast for next week: Insufficient arrivals lead to inventory drawdown; aluminum prices may hover at highs
• Overall, the domestic favorable macro environment remains unchanged, while the impact of overseas tariffs requires vigilance. On the fundamental side, the fluctuating state of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provides support for aluminum prices, but the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season is evident. Spot premiums/discounts continue to widen, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand.
• Electrolytic aluminum: Off-season transactions weaken, premiums widen; risks of fluctuating aluminum ingot inventory persist
• Bauxite and alumina: Imported ore prices may remain stable in the short term; continuous attention should be paid to shipping conditions
• Aluminum billet and extrusion: Aluminum billet market remains weak, inventory continues to increase; extrusion orders are expected to be bleak, with production pressure
• Secondary aluminum: High-level fluctuations in aluminum scrap with significant differentiation; cast aluminum alloy futures surge to new highs
• Aluminum auxiliary materials: Mild fluctuations in prebaked anode raw materials, with strong cost support; aluminum fluoride prices remain stable, with a continued pattern of weak supply and demand

For more details, please refer to the Weekly Report on China's Aluminum Market (20250710)