[SMM HRC Daily Review] Rumors abound in the market; futures market surges significantly, driving better spot cargo transactions

Published: Jul 10, 2025 17:36

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Today, HRC futures surged significantly, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,262, representing a daily increase of 2.16%. In the spot market, spot prices rose by 30-60 yuan/mt along with the futures market. Throughout the day, spot trading sentiment was moderately to strongly positive, with speculative demand continuously released and generally good trading performance observed nationwide. Supply side, this week, HRC production increased slightly by 6,800 mt. Looking ahead, according to the SMM survey, affected by annual maintenance and rising order-taking pressure in July, some steel mills reduced their production schedules, with daily average production decreasing by 13,000 mt, a 2.72% drop, and supply pressure experiencing a slight correction. Meanwhile, based on the weekly balance data released during the day, social inventory declined this week, with futures performing strongly. Traders' willingness to purchase increased, the pace of in-plant inventory transfer accelerated, and there was a slight reduction in inventory. Overall, apparent demand showed signs of improvement. Looking ahead, although the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are not acute, considering the deepening impact of the off-season on downstream demand, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of HRC prices pulling back from highs after sentiment wanes. Overall, it is expected that the short-term fluctuation range of the most-traded HRC futures contract will between 3,180 and 3,300

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