National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In June, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 3.6% YoY, with prices in some industries showing signs of stabilization and rebound.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in June 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.2% decline. Food prices fell by 0.3%, while non-food prices rose by 0.1%. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.2%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. In H1, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In June, the national CPI fell by 0.1% MoM. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% decline, while rural areas remained unchanged. Food prices fell by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained unchanged. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged. Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician of the NBS's Urban Department, interpreted the CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June 2025, stating that the CPI rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a rebound after four consecutive months of decline. The shift from decline to increase in the CPI was mainly influenced by the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month. The core CPI rose by 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. In June, the PPI fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. The main reasons for the MoM decline in the PPI were: first, the seasonal decline in prices in some domestic raw material manufacturing industries; second, the increase in green electricity driving down energy prices; third, the price pressure in some industries with a high proportion of exports.

In June 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% YoY.

In June 2025, the national ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% YoY and 0.4% MoM. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% YoY and 0.7% MoM. In H1, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.9%.

I. YoY Changes in Producer Prices

In June, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production decreased by 4.4%, contributing to a decline of approximately 3.26 percentage points in the overall level of ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Among them, the prices of mining industries decreased by 13.2%, the prices of raw material industries decreased by 5.5%, and the prices of processing industries decreased by 3.2%. The prices of means of subsistence decreased by 1.4%, contributing to a decline of approximately 0.35 percentage points in the overall level of ex-factory prices of industrial producers. Among them, the prices of food decreased by 2.0%, the prices of clothing increased by 0.1%, the prices of general daily necessities increased by 0.8%, and the prices of durable consumer goods decreased by 2.7%.

Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of fuel and power decreased by 10.4%, the prices of ferrous metal materials decreased by 8.0%, the prices of chemical raw materials decreased by 6.2%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 4.2%, the prices of building materials and non-metals decreased by 2.6%, and the prices of textile raw materials decreased by 2.4%. The prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 2.4%.

II. Month-on-Month Changes in Industrial Producer Prices

In June, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production fell by 0.6%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.42 percentage points in the overall ex-factory price level of industrial producers. Specifically, the prices of mining industries fell by 1.2%, the prices of raw material industries fell by 0.7%, and the prices of processing industries fell by 0.5%. The prices of means of subsistence fell by 0.1%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the overall ex-factory price level of industrial producers. Specifically, the prices of food fell by 0.3%, the prices of clothing remained unchanged, the prices of general daily necessities rose by 0.1%, and the prices of durable consumer goods fell by 0.1%.

Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of fuel and power fell by 2.0%, the prices of building materials and non-metals fell by 1.5%, the prices of ferrous metal materials fell by 1.1%, the prices of chemical raw materials fell by 0.7%, the prices of agricultural and sideline products fell by 0.5%, and the prices of textile raw materials fell by 0.1%; the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires rose by 0.3%.

In June 2025, CPI shifted from a YoY decline to a rise, with core CPI continuing to rebound

——Interpretation of CPI and PPI Data for June 2025 by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

In June, policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to take effect, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifting from a YoY decline in the previous month to a rise of 0.1%; it fell by 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI continued to rebound YoY, rising by 0.7%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) of industrial producers fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and fell by 3.6% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month.

I. CPI shifted from a YoY decline to a rise, with core CPI continuing to rebound

CPI rose by 0.1% YoY, shifting from a decline for four consecutive months to a rise. The shift of CPI from a decline to a rise was mainly influenced by the rebound in the prices of industrial consumer goods. The YoY decline in the prices of industrial consumer goods narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month. Specifically, changes in oil prices contributed to a narrowing of the decline in energy prices by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing the downward impact on CPI YoY by approximately 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. Influenced by changes in international commodity prices, the prices of gold and platinum jewelry rose by 39.2% and 15.9% YoY, respectively, contributing to a rise in CPI YoY of approximately 0.21 percentage points. The effects of policies to promote consumption continued to manifest, with the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% YoY, respectively. The decline in car prices gradually narrowed, with the prices of gasoline-powered and new energy compact cars falling by 3.4% and 2.5% YoY this month, respectively, representing the smallest declines in nearly 28 months and 26 months. The decline in food prices narrowed slightly. Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, beef prices ended 28 consecutive months of decline and turned to rise by 2.7%; pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking the first decline after consecutive increases. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with the increase remaining stable. Core CPI rose by 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new high in nearly 14 months.

CPI fell by 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in food prices was smaller than seasonal levels. Affected by higher temperatures and more rainfall than the same period in previous years, food prices fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline being 0.5 percentage points smaller than seasonal levels. Among food items, prices of freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rose by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, with both increases higher than seasonal levels. Industrial consumer goods prices turned from decline to increase. Affected by changes in international oil prices, gasoline prices turned from a 3.8% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.4% increase, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.1% increase. Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.1% MoM. Among them, affected by the high price of gold and the increase in substitution demand, platinum jewelry prices rose by 12.6%, marking the largest MoM increase in nearly 10 years. Service prices remained stable with some increases. Among them, due to increased demand for housing rentals during the graduation season, rental prices rose by 0.1%.

II. PPI's MoM decline remained the same as the previous month, with prices in some industries showing signs of stabilization and rebound.

PPI fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. The main reasons for PPI's MoM decline are as follows: First, the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries declined seasonally. With the increase in high-temperature and rainy weather in summer, the construction progress of some real estate and infrastructure projects was affected. Coupled with relatively sufficient supply of steel, cement, etc., the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries fell by 1.8%, and the prices of non-metallic mineral products industries fell by 1.4%, jointly affecting PPI's MoM decline by about 0.18 percentage points. Second, the increase in green electricity drove energy prices down. With the arrival of summer, solar and wind power generation in north-west China and hydropower generation in south-west China increased, reducing overall power generation costs. The prices of the power and heat production and supply industries fell by 0.9%; at the same time, the substitution effect of green electricity on thermal power strengthened, reducing the demand for thermal coal. Coupled with stable coal production and sufficient coal storage at power plants and ports, coal processing prices fell by 5.5%, and coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 3.4%. The above three industries jointly affected PPI's MoM decline by about 0.15 percentage points. Third, prices in some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports were under pressure. Global trade growth has slowed down, and the uncertainty in the international trade environment has affected enterprises' export expectations. In China, some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports are facing increased downward pressure on prices. Prices in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries fell by 0.4%, prices in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries dropped by 0.2%, and prices in the textile industry declined by 0.2%.

Affected by the MoM decline and changes in the comparison base, the YoY decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, with the implementation of various macro policies, the supply-demand relationship in some industries has improved, and prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Firstly, the in-depth advancement of the construction of a unified national market has driven a narrowing of the YoY decline in prices in some industries. Efforts to curb enterprises' low-price and disorderly competition have intensified, and the phase-out of backward production capacity and the improvement of product quality have gradually progressed. Prices for complete vehicle manufacturing of gasoline and diesel vehicles and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% MoM, respectively, with the YoY decline narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, respectively. Prices for PV equipment and electronic component manufacturing fell by 10.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points. Prices for lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 4.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. Secondly, the expansion and intensification of policies aimed at boosting consumption have driven a YoY rebound in the prices of some consumer goods. The potential of domestic demand continues to be unleashed, and the demand for high-quality life has increased. Among consumer goods, prices for general daily necessities and clothing rose by 0.8% and 0.1% YoY, respectively. Prices for durable consumer goods fell by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. From an industry perspective, prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial supplies manufacturing rose by 13.1% YoY, prices for spun silk and silk fabric processing rose by 1.2%, and prices for sporting goods manufacturing rose by 0.7%. Prices for household refrigeration appliances manufacturing, household beauty and health care appliances manufacturing, and television manufacturing saw their YoY decline narrow by 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Thirdly, the accumulation of new momentum has driven a YoY increase in prices in some high-tech industries. China has accelerated the cultivation of new quality productive forces, with the leading role of innovation continuously strengthening. New momentum such as high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing, and the digital economy continues to develop and expand. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing series rose by 3.1% YoY, prices for wearable smart device manufacturing rose by 1.4%, prices for microwave communication equipment rose by 1.3%, prices for aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing rose by 1.1%, prices for servers rose by 0.9%, and prices for micro and special motors and component manufacturing rose by 0.6%.