National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In June, CPI turned from decline to growth on a YoY basis, while core CPI continued to rebound. PPI's decline on a WoW basis remained the same as the previous month.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in June 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.2% decline; food prices fell 0.3%, while non-food prices rose 0.1%; consumer goods prices dropped 0.2%, while service prices increased 0.5%. In H1, the national CPI decreased 0.1% YoY compared to the same period last year. In June, the national CPI fell 0.1% MoM. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% decline, while rural areas remained unchanged; food prices fell 0.4%, while non-food prices remained unchanged; consumer goods prices dropped 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged. Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician of the NBS's Urban Department, interpreted the CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June 2025, stating that the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline. The shift from decline to increase in the CPI was mainly influenced by the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward pull on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month. The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. In June, the PPI fell 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. The main reasons for the MoM decline in the PPI were: firstly, seasonal downward pressure on prices in some domestic raw material manufacturing industries; secondly, the increase in green electricity drove down energy prices; thirdly, prices in some industries with a high proportion of exports came under pressure.

In June 2025, the CPI YoY turned from decline to increase, with the core CPI continuing to rebound

——Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician of the NBS's Urban Department, interprets the CPI and PPI data for June 2025

In June, policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show effectiveness, with the CPI turning from a decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase YoY; it fell 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rebound YoY, rising 0.7%. The PPI fell 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month, and fell 3.6% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month.

I. The CPI YoY turned from decline to increase, with the core CPI continuing to rebound

The CPI rose 0.1% YoY, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline. The shift from decline to increase in the CPI was mainly influenced by the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward pull on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, changes in oil prices influenced the narrowing of the energy price decline by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing the downward pull on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.08 percentage points; influenced by changes in international commodity prices, the prices of gold and platinum jewelry rose 39.2% and 15.9% YoY, respectively, collectively contributing to an approximate 0.21 percentage point increase in the CPI YoY; the effects of policies to promote consumption continued to manifest, with the prices of cultural and recreational durable consumer goods, home textiles, and household appliances rising 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% YoY, respectively; the decline in car prices gradually narrowed, with the prices of gasoline-powered and new energy compact cars falling 3.4% and 2.5% YoY this month, respectively, marking the smallest declines in nearly 28 months and 26 months. The decline in food prices narrowed slightly. Food prices fell by 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, beef prices ended 28 consecutive months of decline and turned to rise by 2.7%; pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking the first decline after consecutive increases. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with the increase remaining stable. Core CPI rose by 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, hitting a new high in nearly 14 months.

CPI fell by 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The decline in food prices was smaller than seasonal levels. Affected by higher temperatures and more rainfall than usual during the same period, food prices fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline being 0.5 percentage points smaller than seasonal levels. Among food items, the prices of freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rose by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, with both increases higher than seasonal levels. Industrial consumer goods prices turned from decline to increase. Affected by changes in international oil prices, gasoline prices turned from a 3.8% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.4% increase, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.1% increase. Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.1% MoM. Among them, affected by the high gold price and increased substitution demand, platinum jewelry prices rose by 12.6%, marking the largest MoM increase in nearly 10 years. Service prices remained stable with a slight increase. Among them, due to increased demand for housing rentals during the graduation season, rental prices rose by 0.1%.

II. PPI's MoM decline remained the same as the previous month, with prices in some industries showing signs of stabilization and rebound.

PPI fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. The main reasons for PPI's MoM decline were as follows: First, seasonal downward pressure on prices in some domestic raw material manufacturing industries. With the increase in high-temperature and rainy weather in summer, the construction progress of some real estate and infrastructure projects was affected. Coupled with relatively sufficient supply of steel, cement, etc., the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries fell by 1.8%, and the prices of non-metallic mineral products industries fell by 1.4%, jointly affecting PPI's MoM decline by about 0.18 percentage points. Second, the increase in green electricity drove down energy prices. With the arrival of summer, solar and wind power generation in north-west China and hydropower generation in south-west China increased, reducing overall power generation costs. The prices of the electricity and heat power production and supply industries fell by 0.9%; at the same time, the substitution effect of green electricity on thermal power strengthened, reducing the demand for thermal coal. Coupled with stable coal production and sufficient coal storage at power plants and ports, coal processing prices fell by 5.5%, and coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 3.4%. The above three industries jointly affected PPI's MoM decline by about 0.15 percentage points. Third, prices in some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports were under pressure. Global trade growth has slowed down, and the uncertainty in the international trade environment has affected enterprises' export expectations. As a result, the downward pressure on prices in some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports in China has intensified. Prices in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries fell by 0.4%, while those in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries dropped by 0.2%, and prices in the textile industry also declined by 0.2%.

Affected by the MoM decline and changes in the comparison base, the YoY decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, with the implementation of various macro policies, the supply-demand relationship in some industries has improved, and prices have shown signs of stabilization and rebound. Firstly, the in-depth advancement of the construction of a unified national market has driven a narrowing of the YoY decline in prices in some industries. Efforts to curb enterprises' low-price and disorderly competition have intensified, and the phase-out of backward production capacity and the improvement of product quality have been gradually promoted. Prices for complete vehicles of gasoline and diesel cars and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% MoM, respectively, with the YoY decline narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, respectively. Prices for PV equipment and electronic component manufacturing fell by 10.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points. Prices for lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 4.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. Secondly, the expansion and intensification of policies aimed at boosting consumption have driven a YoY rebound in prices for some consumer goods. The potential for domestic demand continues to be unleashed, and the demand for high-quality living has increased. Prices for general daily necessities and clothing among consumer goods rose by 0.8% and 0.1% YoY, respectively. Prices for durable consumer goods fell by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. From an industry perspective, prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial items manufacturing rose by 13.1% YoY, while those for spun silk and silk fabric processing rose by 1.2%, and prices for sporting goods manufacturing rose by 0.7%. Prices for household refrigeration appliances manufacturing, household beauty and health care appliances manufacturing, and television manufacturing saw their YoY declines narrow by 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Thirdly, the accumulation of new momentum has driven a YoY increase in prices for some high-tech industries. China has accelerated the cultivation of new quality productive forces, with the role of innovation leading continuously strengthening. New momentum such as high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing, and the digital economy has continued to grow and expand. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing series rose by 3.1% YoY, while those for wearable smart device manufacturing rose by 1.4%. Prices for microwave communication equipment rose by 1.3%, while those for aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing rose by 1.1%. Prices for servers rose by 0.9%, and those for micro and special motors and component manufacturing rose by 0.6%.