The operating rate of copper pipe & tube producers will continue to decline

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June was 73.65%
According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June was 73.65%, down 8.11 percentage points MoM and 3.12 percentage points YoY. The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises saw a significant decline in June, with large, medium, and small enterprises experiencing a 5%-10% MoM decline. As air conditioner production schedules declined in June and a major OEM slowed down cargo pick-up, some copper pipe & tube enterprises focused on clearing finished product inventories, leading to a notable decline in new order production. Alloy pipes also faced a sluggish market, maintaining an operating rate of around 60%-65% with no significant decline in June. The installation pipe market showed improvement in late June, with the hot weather this year arriving later than last year, potentially leading to increased demand for installation pipes next month.

The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June was 4.00%
The raw material inventory ratio of copper pipe & tube enterprises in June was 4.00%, up 0.27 percentage points MoM. In June, copper prices saw an upward shift in their center, and spot premiums experienced multiple instances of jumping initially and then pulling back. As orders decreased, downstream raw material inventories decreased.

The operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is projected to be 69.18% in July
According to SMM data, the projected operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises in July 2025 is 69.18%, down 4.47 percentage points MoM and 3.48 percentage points YoY. According to the latest household air conditioner production schedule report released by ChinaIOL, the domestic sales production schedule for household air conditioners in July 2025 is 10.01 million units, an 8.1% increase compared to the actual domestic sales in the same period last year; the domestic sales production schedule for August is 6.175 million units, a 19.2% YoY decline; and the domestic sales production schedule for September is 5.625 million units, a 7.8% YoY decline. The export production schedule for household air conditioners in July 2025 is 5.794 million units, a 16.3% YoY decline compared to the actual export volume in the same period last year; the export production schedule for August is 5.06 million units, an 8.3% YoY decline; and the export production schedule for September is 5.025 million units, a 16.6% YoY decline.

Domestic sales showed slight resilience in July, while exports have already declined significantly. National subsidies and other policies remain unclear at present, and air conditioner inventories are high, posing pressure on both OEMs and channel distributors. After entering August and September, both domestic sales and exports are expected to decline significantly, with the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises projected to be only 60-70%.