[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Rebound Slightly; Smelters in Both Regions Expected to Operate at Low Rates in July] According to SMM's processing data from in-depth market surveys, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have continued to rebound slightly in recent periods. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces has risen to 53.97%. Low Operating Rates: Due to tight tin ore supply, smelters in Yunnan have maintained low operating rates. Despite a slight rebound of 4.13% in operating rates this week, they remain significantly lower than the levels in Q4 2024. Critically Low Raw Material Inventories: Myanmar's tin ore imports have been below the 10,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, the slow pace of production resumptions in the Wa region, coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, has blocked tin ore import channels. Raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters are generally insufficient for 30 days, forcing some enterprises to conduct maintenance or implement gradient production cuts. Treatment charges (TCs) for 40% grade tin concentrates are at historical lows, squeezing smelting profits and further dampening production enthusiasm. Jiangxi smelters rely on a scrap tin recycling system, but poor end-use consumption has led to a decline in recycling volumes. Falling TCs have driven up production costs. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap, resulting in slow capacity recovery. Smelters in both regions are expected to operate at low rates in July.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate Rangebound at High Levels, Spot Market Remains Sluggish] Morning Session Trends: Today, SHFE tin continued to fluctuate rangebound at high levels. It opened at 269,010 yuan/mt (down slightly by 0.11% from the previous night session), reaching a high of 271,300 yuan/mt and a low of 267,000 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 267,770 yuan/mt in the midday session, down by 0.46%, with open interest remaining stable at 31,100 lots.

The spot market maintains a state of "high premium and low trading volume," with SHFE tin prices trading sideways at a high level. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) The US Congress approved comprehensive tax and budget legislation on Thursday, which means that the $7,500 tax credit for purchasing or leasing a new EV will expire on September 30, along with the $4,000 tax credit for used EVs. (Bearish ★) (2) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held the 15th Manufacturing Enterprise Symposium: Comprehensively addressing the low-price and disorderly competition in the PV industry in accordance with laws and regulations. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Von der Leyen: The EU aims to reach a "deal in principle" with the Trump administration by July 9. ② US Treasury Secretary: Warns that tariffs could be raised back to April 2 levels, with approximately 100 countries expected to receive at least a 10% reciprocal tariff. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. ③ Japanese Prime Minister: Trump may have been misled on some tariff issues. ④ Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US. ④ Trump could send letters as early as Friday to inform trading partners of unilateral tariff rates. ⑤ Canadian Finance Minister: Can negotiate the best trade agreement with the US, and there will be no digital tax.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Market Focuses on US Non-Farm Payrolls Data and the Period When Tariff Exemptions Expire on July 9; SHFE Tin Prices Remain High and Consolidate] Intraday Trend: On July 3, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened at 269,000 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 269,980 yuan/mt and a low of 267,830 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 268,420 yuan/mt, down by 880 yuan (a decline of 0.33%), with a settlement price of 269,010 yuan/mt. Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volume stood at 57,264 lots, while open interest was 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots from the previous day, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tight Ore Supply and Weak Ingot Prices vs. Macro Pressures - The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates at Highs, Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Guidance] In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) exhibited a pattern of fluctuating rangebound at highs: it opened at 269,000 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.11% from the previous night session, with an intraday high of 269,980 yuan/mt and a low of 267,830 yuan/mt. It closed at 268,460 yuan/mt at midday, with the decline narrowing to 0.31%, and open interest remained stable at around 30,600 lots. Market trading was sluggish, with longs and shorts vying at the 269,000 yuan/mt threshold, reflecting that funds were awaiting guidance from the US non-farm payrolls data in the evening, lacking short-term directional breakthrough momentum.

The Vietnamese market will be fully opened to the US. SHFE tin prices remain high and rangebound. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Tesla (TSLA.O) saw a 13.5% YoY decline in global auto sales in Q2. As the company attempts to transition to autonomous vehicles, its auto sales continue to decline significantly. (Bearish ★) (2) China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): Based on comprehensive preliminary monthly data, it is estimated that nationwide wholesale sales of passenger NEVs by producers reached 1.26 million units in June, up 29% YoY and 3% MoM. From January to June this year, cumulative wholesale sales reached 6.47 million units, up 38% YoY. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Trump: A trade agreement has been reached with Vietnam, and the Vietnamese market will be fully opened to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US and impose a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. ② Vietnamese state media: The US will significantly reduce tariffs on a variety of Vietnamese products.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: Decline in U.S. Treasury Yields Prompts Partial Capital Inflows into the Metal Sector, Providing Sentiment Support for SHFE Tin Prices] On July 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 fluctuated at highs: It opened at 270,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous settlement price (269,840 yuan/mt). The intraday fluctuation range was 267,800–271,760 yuan/mt, with an amplitude of 1.47%.

[SMM Tin Lunch Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs, Awaiting Breakthrough; LME Tin Pressured by Supply Recovery Expectations] Today (July 2, 2025), the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 exhibited a pattern of fluctuating at highs: It opened at 270,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than yesterday's settlement price (269,840 yuan/mt). The intraday fluctuation range was 267,800–271,700 yuan/mt, and it closed at 268,510 yuan/mt at noon, up 0.44%. Open interest increased to 31,900 lots, reflecting intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts at the 270,000 yuan/mt threshold, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards current prices, with SHFE tin prices pulling back slightly [SMM Tin Morning Briefing]. Macro: (1) The Jinan Municipal Bureau of Commerce has issued an announcement on the first round of automobile consumption subsidy activities for the second half of 2025 in Jinan. From 0:00 on July 1 to 24:00 on July 31, individuals and enterprises (units) purchasing new non-commercial passenger vehicles from participating automakers in Jinan can apply for automobile consumption subsidy packages of up to 8,500 yuan, with no restrictions on household registration or license plate registration areas. The total subsidy amount for this activity is 12 million yuan. (Bullish ★) (2) SAIC Group's production and sales bulletin shows that in June, the group sold 365,000 vehicles, up 21.6% YoY. From January to June, the group sold 2.053 million vehicles in wholesale, up 12.4% YoY. Since the beginning of this year, SAIC Group has achieved six consecutive months of YoY growth in monthly sales, with cumulative terminal retail deliveries reaching 2.207 million vehicles. (Bullish ★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released the operating conditions of the Internet and related services industry from January to May 2025. From January to May, Internet and related service enterprises above designated size (referred to as "Internet enterprises") achieved Internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan, up 0.9% YoY. From January to May, Internet enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 69.2 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY. (Bullish ★)