The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $66.25/dmt, with a 1.53% WoW increase. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-55/dmt, flat from the previous week's figure.

[SHFE Zinc Maintains High Levels, Awaiting Further Macro Guidance]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2508 contract opened at 22,325 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc began to fluctuate considerably. Near the midday session, SHFE zinc dipped to 22,285 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward all the way. Near the end of the session, it reached a high of 22,445 yuan/mt, and finally closed up at 22,410 yuan/mt...

As of June 30, the most-traded SHFE zinc contract closed at 22,495 yuan/mt, rising by 270 yuan/mt month-on-month, with a decline of 1.21%. In June, zinc prices first fell and then rose, hitting a low of 21,660 yuan/mt in mid-month before rebounding to a high of 22,570 yuan/mt at the end of the month. As we enter July, how will zinc prices perform?

[Some enterprises still remain shut down, and downstream operating rates continue to decline this week] This week, the operating rate of zinc oxide producers was recorded at 56.14%, down 2.58% MoM. On the raw material side, zinc prices maintained a fluctuating trend this week. Meanwhile, due to the relatively sluggish demand recently, enterprises' enthusiasm for stockpiling raw materials was low, resulting in a slight MoM decline in raw material inventory. On the finished product inventories side, as enterprises' outflows from warehouses slowed down recently, finished product inventories increased MoM...

[Sluggish market transaction atmosphere; premiums and discounts in Guangdong continue to decline] This week, premiums and discounts in Guangdong continued to decline, dropping by approximately 100 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, the mainstream quotation for 0# zinc in the Guangdong market was at a premium of 10~30 yuan/mt against the market, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread remained...

[Some enterprises resumed production during the week, driving an overall increase in operating rates] This week, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy producers stood at 49.14%, up 2.6 percentage points WoW. On the raw material side, zinc prices maintained a fluctuating trend this week. With current downstream demand weakening and some enterprises in the market still holding a certain bearish outlook on subsequent zinc prices, procurement was mainly driven by immediate needs, resulting in a WoW decrease in raw material inventories. Finished product inventories of enterprises remained basically flat WoW this week. The increase in the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy producers this week was mainly due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, driving an overall increase in production...

[US ADP employment data shows a surprise cold performance, SHFE and LME zinc prices maintain fluctuating trend] At the beginning of the week, LME zinc maintained the fluctuating trend of last week. Subsequently, due to the recent resurgence of disputes between the US and Canada over tariff issues, the market was filled with tension, and some investors chose to take profits and exit the market. LME zinc pulled back from its highs...

[Increased Arrivals + Weakened Demand = Increased Social Inventory This Week] According to SMM's communication and understanding, as of Thursday (July 3) this week, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven locations tracked by SMM was 82,400 mt, an increase of 2,900 mt from June 26 and an increase of 1,800 mt from June 30. Domestic inventory recorded an increase...

[SHFE/LME price ratio pulls back to oscillate near 8.1, zinc ingot import window remains closed]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back and oscillated near 8.1, with the zinc ingot import window continuing to remain closed. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" was passed in the Senate, and as the July 9 deadline for the suspension of trade tariffs approaches, market risk-aversion demand has risen. However, the US dollar index first fell and then rose, with LME zinc maintaining a fluctuating trend. The US ADP employment figure for June ultimately recorded a decrease of 33,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023. The market has increased expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year, with LME zinc continuing to rise.

[Premiums in Tianjin Continue to Decline]: This week, spot premiums in Tianjin continued to decline, reaching a discount state. They fell by approximately 60 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, domestic common brands were quoted at a discount of 0-30 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract, while high-priced brands were quoted at a premium of 10-30 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract. The discount in Tianjin against Shanghai was around 70 yuan/mt, and the price spread between Shanghai and Tianjin narrowed.