SMM Aluminum Market Weekly Report 20250703

• Hot topic this week: PMI of the aluminum processing industry in June fell by 9.7% MoM - widespread pressure across various sub-sectors, with little improvement expected during the off-season
• Forecast for next week: Resonance between macro factors and weak demand exacerbates the risk of aluminum prices coming under pressure at high levels
• Overall, the current low inventory still provides support for aluminum prices. However, under the triple pressures of expected inventory buildup, weakening consumption, and macro uncertainties, it is anticipated that the risk of aluminum prices coming under pressure at high levels will intensify in the short term. While there is still some upside potential, it is relatively limited. Subsequent attention should be paid to the casting ingot volume and inventory changes. SMM forecasts that the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract will trade within the range of 20,300-21,000 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum will trade within the range of 2,550-2,660 US dollars/mt.
• Electrolytic aluminum: Continuous inventory buildup of aluminum ingots during the week, with spot premiums falling unremittingly
• Bauxite and alumina: Bauxite prices remain stable, with a potential slight increase in spot prices driven by the rebound in alumina futures
• Aluminum billet and extrusion: Negative processing fees for aluminum billets persist, with operating rates for aluminum extrusions under pressure across the board during the off-season
• Secondary aluminum: The aluminum scrap market remains at a high level during the off-season, with cost pressure for secondary aluminum alloys difficult to alleviate
• Aluminum auxiliary materials: Prices of prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride continue to decline, with the auxiliary material market continuing to weaken

For more details, please refer to the Weekly Report on China's Aluminum Market (20250703)