This week, the ferrous metals series fluctuated downward. On Monday, five departments issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025–2026)", setting an average annual growth target for the steel industry's value-added at around 4% over the next two years, which was positive for market sentiment. However, demand for finished products was not well released, making it difficult for futures to rise. In the latter part of the week, six departments announced a strict ban on new capacity for cement clinker and flat glass, requiring that new or renovation projects must formulate capacity replacement plans. Expectations of anti-involution resurfaced, coupled with MoM improvement in finished product inventory data, leading to a retreat of bear funds and a slight rise in futures. However, by the weekend, both the US and the EU announced they are expected to impose new tariffs on China, causing futures to decline again. On the spot market side, suppressed by futures, pre-holiday procurement demand this week was not significant...

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Supply side, recent increases in coking coal costs have squeezed coke producers' margins, prompting them to initiate a coke price hike. However, without significant losses, production enthusiasm remains moderate, and supply is basically stable. With the National Day holiday approaching, coke shipments have improved. Demand side, steel mills' profitability is moderate, and hot metal production remains high. Coupled with the upcoming holiday, there is some restocking demand for coke. However, with continued inventory buildup in steel products, buyers are resistant to the coke price hike. Overall, pre-holiday restocking room is limited. In the short term, the coke market is expected to remain in a deadlock, though the first round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented.

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of news, leading coke enterprises initiated the first round of coke price hikes, with increases of 50-55 yuan/mt. Supply side, coke producers face rising coal costs and narrowing profits, but without significant losses, production enthusiasm remains moderate, and supply is basically stable. With the National Day holiday approaching, coke shipments have improved. Demand side, steel mills' profitability is moderate, hot metal production remains high, and with the holiday approaching, there is some restocking demand for coke. However, steel products continue to experience inventory buildup, leading to resistance to the coke price hike. Overall, the coke market is expected to remain in a deadlock in the short term, and the likelihood of the first round of coke price increases being implemented is expected to strengthen over time.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Brief] Supply side, most coke enterprises maintained their production levels, while a few reduced output, leading to a slight decline in coke supply. Demand side, steel mills' hot metal production remains high, sustaining stable demand for coke. With the National Day holiday approaching, steel mills' restocking demand is being released. Overall, pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills persists, the supply-demand structure for coke has tightened, and cost support has strengthened. In the short term, the coke market is expected to remain generally stable with a slight rise.

Last week, China's steel export prices fluctuated rangebound by $1-3/mt. By sheet & plate variety, HRC prices edged down $1-2/mt, while medium-thickness plates, cold-rolled products, and silicon steel remained in the doldrums. In the Thai market, mainstream product prices held steady mid-week, with galvanizing CFR Thailand traded at $610-620/mt and wire rod CFR at $520-525/mt. According to local traders, supply of some galvanizing resources is somewhat tight, overall shipment sentiment is average, and mills refuse to budge on prices.

SMM Steel, September 23: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments in mainstream markets this week were 235,600 mt, up 1.77% WoW. By market:

[SMM Daily Coking Coal Brief] Supply side, coking plants face increased raw coal costs, with profits hovering near breakeven levels. Production pace remains normal, and supply is relatively stable. Coupled with improved purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers, coking plants are experiencing smooth shipments and maintaining low coke inventory levels. Demand side, some steel mills have gradually resumed production, and with the National Day holiday approaching, certain mills have restocking needs. However, overall steel mill profits remain weak, leading to purchasing as needed. In summary, the coke market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

[SMM Daily Coal and Coke Briefing] Supply side, coke producers' profits have declined significantly recently, but operating rates remain at normal levels. Coupled with moderate purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers, coke producers are shipping smoothly with no inventory pressure for now. Demand side, as the National Day holiday approaches, steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm has increased somewhat. However, current coke inventory at steel mills is already at reasonable levels, and finished steel prices continue to fluctuate, resulting in low acceptance of coke price hikes by steel mills. In summary, upward momentum for coke prices is still building, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.

This week, the ferrous metals series initially rose before weakening and stabilizing in the doldrums. HRC, constrained by fundamental pressures, performed worse than other varieties. The key turning point this week was the US Fed's interest rate cut. In the first half of the week, before the rate cut was implemented, macro expectations remained, coupled with rumors of a halt in Xinjiang thermal coal production, leading to a relatively strong overall performance in the ferrous metals series. In the latter half of the week, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with no surprises, prompting some capital to exit. From the fundamentals of finished products, rebar showed a short-term inventory turning point, while HRC inventory continued to accumulate. Under fundamental pressure, HRC's performance remained weak.