On July 2 local time, the release of the highly anticipated "US ADP employment data" (ADP employment data) in the US caused a stir, marking the first negative growth since March 2023. The data showed a sharp decline of 33,000 private sector jobs in the US in June, a stark contrast to the 100,000 new jobs economists had previously forecast. Affected by this, the market's expectations for the upcoming June non-farm payrolls data have become increasingly pessimistic, with widespread predictions that growth will fall significantly short of expectations and the unemployment rate may rise. The continued weakness in the job market is highly likely to become a key pivot point prompting the US Fed to cut interest rates ahead of schedule.