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News of stainless steel production cuts has been fully digested, and with weak market demand, prices have fallen again [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review]

iconJul 1, 2025 17:47
Source:SMM
[SMM Daily Stainless Steel Review: Market Digestion of Production Cuts News Complete, Weak Market Demand Drives Prices Down Again] SMM reported on July 1 that the overall SS futures market showed a weakening trend, with prices pulling back and even dropping below 12,500 yuan/mt during the session. In the spot market, as the futures market stopped rising and turned downward over the past two days, the news of production cuts by stainless steel mills earlier had been largely digested by the market. The weak downstream demand in the spot market became prominent again, leading to sluggish transactions and a slight drop in spot quotes. There was news at noon that steel mills had reduced the prices of 200-series stainless steel, but the price reduction did not significantly boost transactions, and the market remained sluggish. Despite the current low stainless steel prices and the continuous decline in planned production, the supply-demand imbalance had not been fundamentally reversed amid persistent weak demand, and it would still take time for market confidence to recover. In the futures market, the most-traded contract 2508 fell and pulled back. At 10:30 a.m., SS2508 was quoted at 12,520 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the Wuxi region, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B stainless steel ranged from 250 to 450 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 7,625 yuan/mt; the cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils had an average price of 12,700 yuan/mt in Wuxi and the same in Foshan; the cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were priced at 23,800 yuan/mt in Wuxi and the same in Foshan; the hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were both quoted at 23,100 yuan/mt in the two regions; the cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both...

SMM July 1: SS futures showed an overall weakening trend, with prices pulling back and briefly falling below 12,500 yuan/mt during the session. Spot market-wise, as futures stopped rising and turned downward over the past two days, the market has largely digested earlier news of stainless steel mill production cuts. The sluggish downstream demand for spot cargoes became more evident again, leading to weaker transactions and slightly lower spot offers. Midday reports indicated mills lowered prices for 200-series stainless steel, but the price cuts failed to significantly boost transactions, with the market remaining sluggish. Although current stainless steel prices have dropped to low levels and planned production continues to decline, against the backdrop of persistently weak demand, the supply-demand imbalance has not fundamentally reversed, and market confidence recovery will take time.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2508 retreated. At 10:30 am, SS2508 was quoted at 12,520 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B ranged between 250-450 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both offered at 7,625 yuan/mt; cold-rolled edge-trimmed 304/2B coils averaged 12,700 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were priced at 23,800 yuan/mt, same as Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted at 23,100 yuan/mt in both locations; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both at 7,300 yuan/mt.

Currently, the stainless steel market remains in the traditional off-season, with downstream demand failing to match current supply levels. Additionally, uncertainties such as US tariffs remain significant, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream. Although stainless steel mills generally face losses, and production cut news has emerged, the massive production base from earlier periods keeps current market supply at historically high levels for the same period. The supply-demand relationship recovery will require time. Both mill inventories and social inventories remain at relatively high levels, with destocking slowing noticeably during the off-season, putting stainless steel mills, agents, and traders under significant sales pressure, thereby limiting price rebounds. Raw material side also faces substantial pressure. Affected by expectations for mill production cuts, only high-carbon ferrochrome maintains stable tender prices due to overseas producer cuts, but retail prices already trail tender prices. Other materials like high-grade NPI and stainless steel scrap have also weakened significantly, further eroding cost support for stainless steel.The market is waiting to see how the supply-demand relationship will recover after stainless steel mills cut production.

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