The supply-demand imbalance makes it difficult to change the market pattern of blister copper, blister copper RCs remain stable at a low level [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 1 News:

In June 2025, blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt MoM. Blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM.
In June, blister copper RCs saw a slight increase, mainly due to a decrease in market demand. As the mid-year period approached, some domestic smelters began to control their inventory levels, especially after mid-to-late June, when procurement volumes of spot blister copper significantly declined. However, in terms of supply, the supply of blister copper and anode plates remained tight in June, primarily due to a decrease in copper scrap imports from the US. In terms of imports, the market was relatively sluggish due to an inverted SHFE/LME price ratio and limited import sources.
SMM's latest weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 700-900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 800 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, with an average price of 750 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM. Weekly blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at 90-100 US dollars/mt, with an average price of 95 US dollars/mt, unchanged MoM. Anode plate RCs in China were quoted at 400-600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 500 yuan/mt, unchanged MoM.

Entering July, the market is expected to remain tight. In terms of supply, with copper prices rising at the end of June, Chinese secondary copper raw material inventories began to be sold off. Meanwhile, due to the better profitability of anode plates compared to secondary copper rods, Chinese anode plate supply is expected to increase. However, as some copper scrap traders remain cautious about the current copper prices and copper scrap imports remain low, the increase in copper scrap supply is expected to be limited unless the copper price center continues to climb. In terms of demand, as the mid-year period concludes, smelters' restocking demand will rise. However, given that blister copper RCs are already at a relatively low level, the market is expected to remain stable in July.