This week, market conditions showed synchronized growth in lithium carbonate and cathode material prices, with cost pass-through driving a steady increase in new battery cell prices. Supply side, speculation suggests battery cell manufacturers prioritized stabilizing prices for A-grade batteries for well-known mobile phones, further reducing sales of second-life B-grade cells, directly tightening supply of popular second-life battery cells. Demand side, overall second-life battery market demand remained stable, with downstream purchasing enterprises maintaining steady procurement needs. Supply-demand dynamics slightly pushed up prices of popular second-life battery cells, while conventional second-life cell prices were less affected by these adjustments.

This week, prices of nickel, cobalt, lithium, and other salt products continued to rise. With the increase in salt product prices, the nickel, cobalt, and lithium payable indicators for ternary and LCO black mass also rose steadily. The prices per % lithium for LFP black mass also began to increase this week. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, the current price range is 2,650–2,800 yuan/mtu, up 100 yuan/mtu WoW. For ternary black mass, the current nickel and cobalt payable indicator stands at 73.5–75%, flat WoW, while the lithium payable indicator remains at 68–71%, also largely unchanged from the previous week. On the LFP hydrometallurgy side, most enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach at the beginning of the week, with many LFP battery hydrometallurgy recycling plants maintaining toll processing. However, as lithium carbonate prices rose this week, some upstream enterprises followed suit with price increases. Currently, the profit margin for externally purchased LFP black mass used in lithium chemicals production has shifted from hovering around the breakeven point at the end of August to approximately -5% to -8%. As a result, most lithium chemical recycling enterprises that resumed production in mid-August have adopted a cautious stance toward purchasing raw materials such as black mass. Market sentiment was mediocre compared to the previous week. With cobalt sulphate prices rising steadily from last month to mid-this month, the cobalt and lithium payable indicators for LCO black mass increased to some extent this week. However, due to high upstream quotations and ongoing overseas policy uncertainties, downstream transactions remained cautious.

Cobalt Chloride: Strong Cost Support and Intense Market Wait-and-See Sentiment

Co3O4: Strengthened Cost-Driven Upward Momentum and Increased Downstream Stockpiling Willingness

The persistent tightness in nickel sulphate supply, anticipated changes in cobalt export policies in the DRC, and the yet-to-be-clarified subsequent adjustments to domestic lithium ore mining policies collectively exacerbate the uncertainty in the price trends of ternary cathode materials.

With the latest changes to the cobalt export ban in the DRC expected to be announced, the price of ternary cathode precursor is anticipated to continue rising next week.