SMM June 30 Report:
According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in June 2025 (30 days) decreased by 0.19% MoM and increased by 6.1% YoY. As of the end of June, China's existing capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was approximately 110.82 million mt, with actual operating capacity increasing by 3.14% MoM and an operating rate of 79.7%.
Due to the earlier rebound in alumina prices, the monthly average alumina price in June remained high, and alumina enterprises maintained high operating capacity. Coupled with the gradual restoration of maintenance capacity in the earlier period, there was a significant rebound in domestic alumina operating capacity in June.
By region, in June, maintenance and production cuts in south China gradually resumed, with operating capacity rebounding by nearly 2 million mt. In north China, alumina operating capacity saw both increases and decreases, but overall, operating capacity increased by approximately 700,000 mt.
Next month's forecast: Entering July, in the short term, due to an increase in demand for delivery brands, there are signs of alumina spot prices halting their decline. The subsequent trend of alumina prices will need to continuously track the circulation of alumina spot cargo. If prices fall, there is a possibility of an increase in alumina maintenance and production cuts. As of now, there are expectations of partial maintenance, production cuts, and the continuous ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity in alumina production. In July, the nationwide operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to remain largely stable, at around 88.27 million mt/year.
