SMM July 25th: According to customs data, China's aluminum profile exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) reached 70,900  tons(-1.80%MoM, -27.28% YoY) in June 2025.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,940/mt (the session high) overnight, then fluctuated downward with the price center gradually declining to touch a low of $9,848/mt before closing at $9,854.5/mt after considerable fluctuations, down 0.8%.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Price Difference Between A00 Aluminum and Aluminum Scrap Narrowed Slightly, Social Inventory of Aluminum Alloy Ingot Accelerated] On Thursday, aluminum prices extended their decline, and the secondary aluminum market showed a divergent trend: some enterprises, supported by the cost side and critically low inventories of finished products, chose to maintain stable quotes under the influence of reluctance to sell; while others, dragged down by weak demand, followed the market trend and reduced their quotes by 100 yuan/mt. In the short term, costs still provide support for ADC12 prices, but the current high social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy, with some warehouses in east China reaching full capacity, coupled with sluggish actual demand and poor shipments, will constrain the subsequent price trend. It is expected that ADC12 prices will maintain a fluctuating trend within a narrow range in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Mixed Factors Lead to Fluctuating Aluminum Prices] Overall, on the macro side, overseas tariffs have been successively confirmed at lower levels than previously, reducing uncertain risks and facilitating the recovery of overseas demand. Domestically, policies related to "combating rat race competition" have driven up industrial metal prices, with the long-term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remaining unchanged. On the fundamental side, amid the release of supply increments and the suppression of the off-season consumption, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Additionally, market sentiment regarding policies such as "combating rat race competition" and "high-quality development" has cooled recently, causing futures to jump initially and then pull back. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment in the future.

After the U.S. hiked aluminium tariffs to 50% in June 2025, producers faced soaring costs, rerouted supply and raised prices, while even those buoyed by higher regional premiums tightened spending to hedge against prolonged trade uncertainty.

[SMM Analysis]This week, the most-traded contract of cast aluminum alloy futures initially jumped and then pulled back, reaching a new post-listing high of 20,350 yuan/mt on Wednesday before slightly declining, closing at 20,135 yuan/mt on Thursday. On the spot market, ADC12 prices initially rose and then fell. As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was reported at 20,100 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, with the theoretical premium against the most-traded contract narrowing to 110 yuan/mt.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,940/mt overnight, fluctuated downward to $9,914.5/mt in early trading, then fluctuated considerably to a high of $9,946.5/mt before consolidating sideways and finally closing at $9,933.5/mt, up 0.36%, with trading volume at 15,000 lots and open interest at 265,000 lots.

Futures Market: On the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2509 contract opened at 20,780 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,815 yuan/mt, a low of 20,725 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,750 yuan/mt, down 0.19% from the previous close.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: The most-traded contract edges down overnight, with ADC12 prices expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term] Aluminum prices ended their consecutive gains on Wednesday, with secondary aluminum market prices generally holding steady. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 20,250 yuan/mt. The current price remains firm, partly due to the supportive role of the cost side. The market supply of aluminum scrap remains tight, leading to high procurement prices for manufacturers and difficulties in restocking. On the other hand, influenced by factors such as insufficient raw material supply, a decline in enterprise operating rates, and concentrated spot and futures deliveries, manufacturers' finished product inventories have decreased. The tight supply situation has further fueled enterprises' reluctance to sell and their reluctance to budge on prices.