[SMM Spot Aluminum Lunch Review: Spot Market Remains Sluggish, East China Premiums Narrow Rapidly] On the inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, the domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in three regions stood at 329,000 mt on July 2, a destocking of 500 mt from the previous trading day. In the short term, despite the low aluminum ingot inventory, the increase in casting ingot production has supplemented market supply. Additionally, there is a strong fear of high prices in the spot market, coupled with poor downstream demand and significant production cuts, resulting in low purchase willingness. Transactions are occurring at discounts, and it is expected that the spot premiums will narrow in the short term.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: The center of cast aluminum price moved up again overnight, with sluggish spot cargo transactions] Aluminum prices remained stable on Tuesday, with limited fluctuations in the raw material end of ADC12. Most mainstream quotations in the market remained unchanged, and the SMM ADC12 price range held steady at 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. Entering July, the lack of growth in downstream orders will continue to suppress the upside room for ADC12 prices. However, the firm cost support will form a floor for prices.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Factors Intertwined, Fundamentals Remain Sluggish, Aluminum Prices Expected to Oscillate] Overall, on the macro side, domestic favorable policies continue to intensify, promoting consumption in the same direction; overseas macro factors are intertwined, with risks still present. On the fundamental side, in some regions, aluminum smelters have increased their casting ingot production. Coupled with the off-season in downstream industries and fear of high prices, market transactions are far from ideal. Aluminum ingot inventory has seen a slight buildup, and spot premiums/discounts have weakened significantly. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to the changes in casting ingot production and inventory.

[Daily Review of ADC12 Prices: Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Rise Slightly, Spot Market Shows Mediocre Performance] In the spot market, the SMM A00 aluminum price remained flat at 20,780 yuan/mt; the SMM ADC12 price range held steady at 20,000-20,200 yuan/mt. Today, aluminum prices remained stable, with limited fluctuations in the raw material end of ADC12. Mainstream quotations in the market were mostly unchanged, but actual transactions were sluggish.

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and thus driving up aluminum cost. SMM data shows that the SMM alumina index averaged 3,235.7 yuan/mt MoM from May 26 to June 25, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (from May 26 to June 25), with domestic aluminum industry averaging a profit of about 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, domestic aluminum operating capacity reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses monthly average prices for calculation, 100% of domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.

[SMM Analysis: Rising alumina prices drive up aluminum cost; south-west China implements electricity prices for rainy season] SMM reported on July 1: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and driving up the aluminum cost. SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index during the period (5.26-6.25) was 3,235.7 yuan/mt, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (May 26-June 25), with the average profit of the domestic aluminum industry at around 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses the monthly average price for calculation, 100% of the domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.