Faced with multiple disruptive factors such as tax payment periods and the maturity of a large volume of interbank certificates of deposit, the overall funding situation demonstrated strong resilience during the quarter-end transition period at the end of June. Short-term interest rates fluctuated mildly, and market liquidity remained reasonably ample. Looking ahead to July, market liquidity may face periodic pressure due to factors such as fiscal payments, accelerated government bond supply, and tax payment periods. However, under the continuous support of the People's Bank of China and flexible and appropriate monetary policy adjustments, the overall funding situation is still expected to maintain a loose pattern. Industry insiders predict that despite local disruptions, the interest rate center will remain generally stable, with DR007 likely fluctuating within the range of 1.5% to 1.6%. There is still room for further monetary policy easing.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: Are Cost Disruptions Limited? HRC Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Yesterday, HRC futures rose amid fluctuations, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,136, up 0.06% on a daily basis. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production this week was 19,600 mt, a decrease of 32,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production is expected to be 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt from this week. The impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production has reached its lowest point, further increasing the supply pressure for HRC. In terms of demand, the end-use demand from the manufacturing sector remains relatively resilient, but signs of seasonal decline have also emerged. Cost side, rumors of production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan circulated yesterday. According to the SMM survey, production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan steel mills do exist. However, the steel mills themselves have sufficient sinter inventory, which is unlikely to lead to production cuts in blast furnaces. Meanwhile, there is still an expectation for an increase in pig iron production from blast furnaces, and the support from furnace charge may not collapse in the short term. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation stage, but inventory pressure remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with moderate cost support, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM Steel News on July 1: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of resources in mainstream markets this week were 275,200 mt, an increase of 31,500 mt compared to the shipment level WoW. By market:

SMM Steel News on July 1: According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of resources in the mainstream market this week were 275,200 mt, an increase of 31,500 mt WoW from the shipment level. By market:

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coking enterprises are still operating at a loss, leading to a certain degree of production cuts. Meanwhile, the shipment situation of coking enterprises has improved, with their own coke inventory declining and sales pressure easing. Demand side, market expectations have improved, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is moderate, with a slight increase in replenishment enthusiasm. The control of arrival situations has decreased, and the demand for traders' speculative purchases has also increased. In summary, the fundamental contradictions in the coke market have decreased, cost support has emerged, prices have bottomed out, and the short-term coke market may operate steadily for the time being.

Today, HRC futures rose with fluctuations, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,136, up 0.06% on a daily basis. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production this week was 19,600 mt, a decrease of 32,800 mt WoW. Next week, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production is expected to be 2,800 mt, a decrease of 16,800 mt MoM from this week. The impact from maintenance on hot-rolled coil production has reached its lowest point, further increasing the supply pressure of HRC. In terms of demand, the end-use demand from the manufacturing sector remains relatively resilient, but seasonal decline trends have also emerged. Cost side, there have been widespread rumors of production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan today. According to the SMM survey, production restrictions on sinter in Tangshan steel mills do exist. However, the steel mills themselves have sufficient sinter inventory, which is unlikely to lead to production cuts in blast furnaces. Meanwhile, there is still an expectation of an increase in pig iron production from blast furnaces, and the support from furnace charge may not collapse in the short term. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation stage, but inventory pressure remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with moderate cost support, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

[SMM Weekly Maintenance Statistics] According to SMM statistics, this week (from June 28 to July 4), the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production was...

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that the composite PMI output index continued to expand. In June, the composite PMI output index stood at 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of production and business activities of enterprises in China. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.0% and 50.5%, respectively.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: Fundamental Contradictions Not Yet Acute, HRC Futures Prices Hold Up Well] Yesterday, HRC futures exhibited an inverted "N" shaped trend, with the most-traded contract closing at 3123, marking a daily increase of 0.12%. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance on hot-rolled production further decreased this week, leading to an increase in HRC supply pressure. On the demand side, end-use demand from the manufacturing sector remained relatively resilient, but signs of seasonal decline also emerged. In terms of exports, last week, SMM recorded steel port departures of 3.1468 million mt, up 21% MoM. Steel port departures in June remained high. On the cost side, the impact of environmental protection-driven production restrictions on coking coal has diminished, potentially weakening support for furnace charge. However, there is still an expectation of an increase in pig iron production from blast furnaces, so the support for furnace charge may not collapse in the short term. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation phase, but inventory pressure remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with the steady improvement in cost support, it is expected that the most-traded HRC futures contract will continue to hold up well in the short term.