SMM reported on June 30 that the SS futures market showed a trend of first rising then falling, but it remained stable above 12,600 yuan/mt. In the spot market, some stainless steel traders slightly raised the prices of 304 stainless steel today, but downstream purchase willingness was weak, and trading conditions were not ideal. Stimulated by the news of large-scale stainless steel production cuts last week, the market had already experienced a round of increases, but the momentum for further increases this week has significantly weakened. Against the backdrop of the traditional off-season, a short-term recovery in end-use consumption is unlikely, and the supply-demand imbalance still requires further production cuts from stainless steel mills to alleviate.
In the futures market, the most-traded contract 2508 also saw a pattern of first rising then falling. At 10:30 am, SS2508 was quoted at 12,650 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged between 170-370 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the cold-rolled 201/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were quoted at 7,625 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled 304/2B coils with trimmed edges in Wuxi was 12,750 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, it was 12,750 yuan/mt; the cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were 23,800 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, they were 23,800 yuan/mt; the hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils in both regions were 23,100 yuan/mt; the cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were 7,300 yuan/mt.
Currently, the stainless steel market remains in the traditional off-season, with downstream demand failing to match the current supply levels. Additionally, uncertainty factors such as US tariffs remain significant, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream players. Despite the widespread issue of losses faced by stainless steel mills and the emergence of production cut news, due to the high base of previous production, the current market supply is still at a relatively high level compared to historical data, and the repair of the supply-demand relationship will take time. Both in-plant inventory and social inventory are at relatively high levels, and under the off-season background, the destocking speed has noticeably slowed down, which puts significant pressure on stainless steel mills, agents, and traders to sell, thereby limiting the rebound in stainless steel prices. The raw material side is also under great pressure. Affected by expectations of steel mill production cuts, only high-carbon ferrochrome, with overseas ferrochrome producers cutting production, can maintain stable bidding prices, but the market retail price has already fallen below the bidding price. Other raw materials, such as high-grade NPI and stainless steel scrap, have also seen a noticeable decline in prices, further weakening the cost support for stainless steel. The market is waiting to see how the supply-demand relationship will be repaired after the stainless steel mills implement production cuts.
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