[SMM Analysis of Downstream Aluminum Industry: PMI of Aluminum Processing Industry Declined by 9.7% MoM in June - All Sub-sectors Generally Under Pressure, Little Improvement Expected in Off-season] The composite PMI of the aluminum processing industry in June was recorded at 40.1%, falling below the 50 mark, declining by 9.7 percentage points MoM and 1.5% YoY.

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Spot Premiums Fall Further Amid Mid-Year Fundraising Needs] SMM June 27 Report: In the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum front-month contract continued to rise from the night session's gains, fluctuating at highs near 20,700 yuan/mt. In east China, as processing fees for downstream aluminum products fell, some enterprises faced losses and gradually entered the rhythm of production cuts. Additionally, due to suppliers' mid-year fundraising needs, they began to sell off inventory, with the market transacting at a discount of 20-30 yuan/mt against SMM. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,890 yuan/mt, up 280 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of 100 yuan/mt against the July contract, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

June 27 News: According to SMM statistics, on June 27, the inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 149,000 mt; in Wuxi, it was 102,000 mt; and in Gongyi, it was 63,000 mt. The total inventory across these three locations was 318,000 mt, a decrease of 4,000 mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: Double Pressure from Off-Season and High Aluminum Prices Leads to Continuous Decline in Weekly Operating Rate of Aluminum Processing] This week, the overall off-season atmosphere was strong in the downstream aluminum processing sector, with the weekly operating rate declining by 1 percentage point WoW to 58.8%. ...

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic Consumption Boosting Policies Intensified, Aluminum Prices Face Short-Term Upside Test] On the macro front, domestic policies have been intensified to boost demand, and the issuance of trade-in funds is conducive to driving the resilience of aluminum consumption. Overseas, if the EU reduces tariffs on US goods to reach a trade agreement, it may alleviate trade conflicts, reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions, and indirectly support aluminum prices. Demand side, downstream industries have entered the traditional off-season, with operating rates for aluminum wire and cable, extrusions, etc., declining significantly. Aluminum processing enterprises in central China have entered a semi-shutdown state due to losses, with low purchase willingness and spot prices remaining at lows. Despite the strong resilience of demand in the new energy sector (such as PV and automotive), PV installation rush demand weakened after June, and home appliance production schedules declined sharply MoM, resulting in insufficient overall demand support. Inventory side, SMM domestic aluminum ingot inventory slightly declined by 1,000 mt to 463,000 mt on June 26, with initial signs of inventory buildup pressure. As the off-season deepens and casting ingot volumes increase, inventory begins to face certain pressure. Overall, aluminum prices will face tests from inventory turning point confirmation and off-season demand pressure in the coming week, hovering at highs in the short term.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 23-26, 2025) are as follows......

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Futures Market of Cast Aluminum Alloy Rose Overnight, Social Inventory Maintained Inventory Buildup Trend] The tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand during the off-season persisted throughout the week. After a decrease of 50-100 yuan/mt, the price of ADC12 temporarily stabilized. However, the impact of low-priced goods intensified market competition. In the short term, cost support is expected to persist, but it will face pressure from the deepening off-season and inventory accumulation. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Close attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation and signs of improvement in demand.