Cobalt sulphate prices rose again this week. Supply side, smelters remained bullish on future cobalt prices, temporarily suspended quotations and raised their intended selling prices. Intermediate product smelters increased their target prices to above 65,000 yuan/mt, while MHP and recycling enterprises raised their target prices to 61,500–62,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, some downstream ternary and Co3O4 enterprises were concerned about potential supply shortages, leading to a slight increase in purchase willingness recently. Ternary enterprises concluded transactions at 59,000–60,000 yuan/mt, while Co3O4 enterprises traded at 65,000 yuan/mt. Overall, driven by rising raw material prices and downstream stockpiling, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to remain strong.

This week, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products maintained an upward trend. Supply side, with the DRC's policy announcement, major miners and traders anticipate a sustained tightness in cobalt raw materials from China in the future, continuing to suspend offers. Demand side, following the rise in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, production margins for externally purchased intermediate products saw a slight improvement, with some smelters making inquiries around $15.5/lb. However, due to upstream suppliers refusing to budge on prices, no transactions were ultimately concluded. Under the DRC's policy of nearly one-month delays and a 50% export quota, China's cobalt raw materials are expected to remain tight over the long term, and intermediate product prices are projected to continue rising slowly.

The price of refined cobalt continued to rise this week. On Sunday, the policy in the DRC was officially implemented, which was slightly weaker than market expectations last Friday, leading to a pullback in futures at the beginning of the week. However, according to this policy, China's cobalt market is expected to remain relatively tight in the future. After digesting the expectation gap, the market returned to rationality, and prices continued to rise. However, due to the rapid increase in refined cobalt prices, downstream sectors struggled to pass on costs, resulting in limited actual market transactions. The window for refined cobalt to be re-melted into cobalt salts is expected to open soon, which is anticipated to accelerate the depletion of its inventory.

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Co3O4: Strengthened Cost Transmission Boosts Bullish Expectations

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Persistent tightness in nickel sulphate supply, the extension of cobalt export policies in the DRC, and the imminent release of domestic lithium ore mining-related regulations are expected to collectively drive a further rise in ternary cathode material prices in Q4.