Copper prices rise, making it difficult to expand the backwardation between the current month and the next month; Shanghai spot copper premiums increase [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jun 27, 2025 12:47

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[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, smelters are expected to increase their export efforts, and the supply of spot cargo in the spot market will be tight. Additionally, as we enter the beginning of the month, suppliers are expected to refuse to budge on prices. However, with copper prices surging to 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. It is anticipated that there will be limited upside room for spot premiums beyond the current daily levels.

SMM News on June 27:

Today, the spot premiums for SMM #1 copper cathode against the July 2507 contract were reported at a premium of 70-150 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 110 yuan/mt,

up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 79,970 to 80,280 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper contract for the following month opened higher with a gap, reaching a high of 80,000 yuan/mt, and continued to trade above the daily average line in the morning session, touching a high of 80,160 yuan/mt. The BACK price spread between futures contracts for the following month remained suppressed near 100 yuan/mt, and the import loss for SHFE copper in the current month widened to approximately 1,400 yuan/mt.

During the day, the spot premiums for SHFE copper opened higher and stabilized at a high level, with most transactions involving traders. Downstream purchases were constrained by high copper prices.

In the morning session, mainstream standard-quality copper was traded at a premium of 70-100 yuan/mt, while sources from Japan, South Korea, and Jinfeng were traded at a premium of 50-70 yuan/mt. SX-EW sources were in short supply, with some BMK sources traded at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, and non-registered sources were also traded at a premium close to parity.

Looking ahead to next week, smelters are expected to increase their export efforts, and the spot market will be in short supply. Suppliers are expected to refuse to budge on prices at the beginning of the month. However, with copper prices surging to 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream purchasing sentiment is poor, and it is expected that the spot premiums will have limited upside room from the current day's levels.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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