According to oil price news, domestic refined oil prices may rise at 24:00 on July 1st. It is expected that gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 600 yuan per mt, equivalent to a rise of 0.49-0.51 yuan per liter. Based on this calculation, filling up a 50-liter tank of No. 92 gasoline will cost an additional 24-25 yuan.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: Cost Support Steady and Improving, HRC Market Likely to Hold Up Well Next Week] Last week, HRC prices initially declined before rebounding, with a significant increase on Friday. The market trading atmosphere was average, and weekly transaction volumes decreased. In terms of supply, the impact from maintenance of hot-rolled production decreased last week, leading to an increase in HRC supply. Demand side, the market was significantly affected by the off-season, coupled with a new round of high-temperature and rainfall warnings, resulting in a decline in apparent demand for finished steel products. In terms of inventory, last week, SMM statistics showed that HRC social inventory was 3.0017 million mt, up 22,200 mt MoM, or +0.75%. Social inventory nationwide began to build up. By region, except for east China, where destocking continued, inventory accumulated in central, south, north, and north-east China. Cost side, last week, the fourth round of coke price reductions was implemented, and iron ore prices rose slightly, leading to a slight weakening of cost support. Looking ahead, the fundamental contradictions in the HRC market are still in the accumulation stage, with a relatively small negative impact on the market. Additionally, with coke prices stabilizing and iron ore prices rising, cost support is steady and improving. This week, the most-traded HRC futures contract may hold up well within the 3070-3170 range.

This week, the ferrous metals series initially declined before rebounding, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The Israel-Iran conflict remained in the headlines. Last weekend, the Iranian Parliament passed a resolution to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, pending approval from the Supreme National Security Council. On June 24th, Israel and Iran announced a ceasefire, but friction persisted between the two sides, and the conflict had not yet fully subsided. In the first half of the week, inflation expectations weakened, and sentiment in the ferrous metals series cooled. As the weekend approached, raw materials led the gains, primarily due to stricter safety inspections in coal mines and the impending five-day closure of Mongolia's Naadam Festival, which heightened expectations of a tighter coking coal supply. Coupled with pig iron production halting its decline and starting to increase, support for raw materials strengthened. In the spot market, with the arrival of the off-season, end-users continued to purchase raw materials as needed. The spot-futures price spread narrowed, and some futures-to-spot traders engaged in purchasing and delivery activities...

[SMM Daily Briefing on Coke] In terms of supply, some coke enterprises suffered losses and implemented production cuts, leading to a slight tightening of coke supply. Additionally, market sentiment for stability has increased recently, and the shipment situation of coke enterprises has improved. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability has continued to improve, and the demand for coke has gradually picked up. Improved market expectations have driven a slight rebound in steel mills' enthusiasm for restocking, while controlling the arrival of goods. In summary, the fundamental contradictions in the coke market have decreased, and cost support has emerged. The short-term coke market may stabilize temporarily. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Coke and Coking Coal Inventory: Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 429,000 mt] Coke inventory at coking plants this week was 429,000 mt, down 37,000 mt MoM, or -7.9%. Coke inventory at steel mills was 2.479 million mt, down 26,000 mt MoM, or -1.0%. Coke inventory at ports was 1.25 million mt, down 20,000 mt MoM, or -1.6%. Coking coal inventory at coking plants was 2.358 million mt, down 26,000 mt MoM, or -1.1%.

At the June press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the NDRC spokesperson stated that China's economy has been operating generally smoothly since the beginning of this year. From the supply side, agricultural production has been carried out in an orderly manner, and industrial and service sectors have seen steady growth. In May, the value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% YoY, and the service sector production index grew by 6.2%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

[SMM Steel Morning Meeting Summary: HRC futures and spot prices remained stable during the day, with overall trading volume being moderate and low-priced transactions being moderate. ] Yesterday, HRC futures first declined and then rose, with the most-traded contract closing at 3103, up slightly by 0.39%. In the spot market, market quotes remained stable, with overall trading volume being moderate and low-priced transactions being moderate. In terms of data, SMM released its weekly HRC balance data yesterday. In terms of production, some steel mills completed their maintenance this week, and HRC production continued to increase MoM. In terms of social inventory, the large-sample social inventory of HRC nationwide, as compiled by SMM, was 3.0017 million mt this week, up 22,200 mt MoM, or 0.75% MoM, and down 27.00% YoY. Social inventory nationwide began to build up. By region, except for east China, where destocking continued, inventories in central, south, north, and north-east China were all accumulating. In the short term, with the off-season inventory buildup turning point approaching and fundamental contradictions slowly increasing, HRC futures and spot prices are under pressure to rise. However, considering the currently low market inventory levels and the strong resilience of demand in some downstream industries, it is expected that the most-traded contract will fluctuate within the 3060-3150 range in the short term.

[SMM Analysis: Is the downstream demand for Ningbo HRC inventory still performing well amid continuous inventory drawdown?] According to the SMM survey, the large-caliber inventory of Ningbo HRC was 269,300 mt (as of June 25) this week, down 4,700 mt WoW. The HRC futures market continued to exhibit a fluctuating trend this week, with a macro vacuum during the week and prices fluctuating rangebound. As of the afternoon close on June 26, the most-traded hc2510 futures contract closed at 3,103 yuan/mt. This week, spot prices in mainstream cities fluctuated and fell, with prices down 10-40 yuan/mt from last Thursday.

[SMM Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, some coking enterprises are operating at a loss and have implemented production cuts, leading to a slight tightening of coke supply. Additionally, market sentiment has stabilized recently, and the sales situation of coking enterprises has improved. In terms of demand, steel mills' profitability continues to improve, and their demand for coke is gradually picking up. Their purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the control over arrival volumes has decreased. In summary, the fundamental contradictions in the coke market have decreased, and cost support has emerged. The coke market may stabilize temporarily in the short term.