[SMM HRC Daily Review] Prices continue to fluctuate rangebound, HRC inventory stops declining and turns to increase

Published: Jun 26, 2025 17:27
Today, HRC futures first declined and then rose, with the most-traded contract closing at 3103, up slightly by 0.39%. In the spot market, market quotes remained stable, with overall trading volume being average and low-priced transactions being moderate. In terms of data, SMM released its weekly HRC balance data today. In terms of production, some steel mills completed maintenance this week, and HRC production continued to rise on a WoW basis. In terms of social inventory, the nationwide HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses (large sample) as counted by SMM this week was 3.0017 million mt, up 22,200 mt or 0.75% WoW, and down 27.00% YoY from the new calendar year. The nationwide social inventory began to build up. By region, except for east China, where destocking continued, inventories in central, south, north, and north-east China were all accumulating. In the short term, with the turning point of off-season inventory buildup approaching and fundamental contradictions slowly increasing, the upward pressure on HRC futures and spot prices is rising. However, considering the currently low market inventory levels and the strong resilience of demand in some downstream industries, it is expected that the most-traded contract will fluctuate within the range of 3060-3150 in the short term.

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