[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Rebound Slightly, but Overall Production Enthusiasm Remains Low]: According to the processing data obtained by SMM through in-depth market surveys, the weekly operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have continued to rebound slightly in recent times. As of this week, the combined operating rate of the two provinces has risen to 50.97%. The resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar's mining area has stalled, coupled with transportation difficulties during the rainy season, leading to a continuous decline in tin ore imports from the Wa region. Meanwhile, due to Thailand's transportation ban in southern Myanmar, the monthly supply of tin ore has decreased by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). Pressure on Treatment Charges (TCs): The treatment charges for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan have fallen to historical lows, approaching the cost line of smelters, severely squeezing profit margins. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production or undergo maintenance, resulting in a relatively low overall production enthusiasm. Recently, a smelter in Jiangxi has completed its shutdown for maintenance and is gradually returning to normal operations, leading to a slight rebound in the operating rate in Jiangxi. Shortage of Recycled Tin Raw Materials in Jiangxi: Jiangxi smelters primarily rely on scrap tin recycling. Transmission Blockages in End-use Industries: Due to cost pressures, the electronics and home appliance industries have slowed down their production rhythms, resulting in a decrease in scrap circulation and forming a negative feedback loop. The raw material shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, coupled with the off-season in consumption. It is expected that the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi may continue to fluctuate at lows or even decline further.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Dollar Index Weakens, Boosting Non-Ferrous Metal Prices] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) continued its strong performance, opening at 268,420 yuan/mt. It pulled back slightly in the morning session, with gains narrowing, and eventually closed at 268,710 yuan/mt, up 0.76% for the day. During the night session, SHFE tin fluctuated at highs, with market sentiment supported by macro policy boosts and a tight supply and demand situation.

SHFE tin maintained an upward trend during the night session, while spot market transactions cooled down [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) China's self-developed new generation of domestic general-purpose processor, Loongson 3C6000, was launched in Beijing. Its performance is comparable to that of mainstream products in the market in 2023 or 2024. The newly released Loongson 3C6000 adopts China's self-designed instruction set architecture, LoongArch, without relying on any foreign authorized technology or overseas supply chains. It is a new generation of general-purpose processor independently developed and controlled by China, capable of meeting the computational needs of various scenarios such as general computing, intelligent computing, storage, industrial control, and workstations. (Bullish ★) (2) The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a press conference in June. At the conference, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the NDRC, stated that in terms of the trade-in policy for consumer goods, the support from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds amounts to 300 billion yuan. The first two batches, totaling 162 billion yuan, have been allocated in January and April this year as planned. The third batch of funds for the trade-in policy of consumer goods this year will be allocated in July. Meanwhile, the NDRC will coordinate with relevant parties, adhering to the principles of greater continuity and balance, to formulate monthly and weekly implementation plans for the use of national subsidy funds in different fields, ensuring the orderly implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods throughout the year. (Bullish ★)

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,692.5/mt, reaching a high of $9,738.0/mt and a low of $9,684/mt, before closing at $9,727.0/mt, up 0.65%. Trading volume reached 14,874 lots, with open interest at 286,436 lots.

SHFE tin rises slightly during night session; spot market transactions may weaken [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Sun Xiaohong, Secretary General of the Automobile Internationalization Professional Committee of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, stated that according to customs data, China's automobile exports reached 6.4 million units last year. With a projected growth rate of 10%, China's automobile export volume is expected to reach 7 million units this year. If the growth rate of automobile exports remains above 10%, by 2030, China's automobile export volume is expected to reach 10 million units. (Bullish ★) (2) Major overseas memory manufacturers are gradually reducing or even halting the production of DDR4 memory chips, instead redirecting resources towards new products like DDR5. Currently, the company is actively expanding its niche DRAM capacity and strengthening its client-side layout, aiming to capture a larger market share amid the withdrawal of major overseas manufacturers. (Bearish ★) (3) Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association shows that Tesla's new vehicle registrations in the EU last month were only 8,729 units. Including the markets of the UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland, its sales still fell by 28%, with total sales dropping to 13,863 units. (Bearish ★)

During the night session, SHFE tin fluctuated downward. Overall trading in the spot market was sluggish [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Futures market: After fluctuating downward, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) maintained a low-level sideways trend and finally closed near 261,700 yuan/mt, dropping slightly by 0.57% compared to the previous trading day.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Low Inventory Supports Prices vs. Inventory Buildup Expectations Curb Upside Room, SHFE Tin Expected to Maintain Sideways Movement] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) opened at 262,020 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous day's settlement price. It reached a high of 263,750 yuan/mt and a low of 261,900 yuan/mt during the session, eventually closing at 263,100 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.03%. Open interest decreased by 740 lots to 16,800 lots, indicating cautious market trading and a strong wait-and-see sentiment among both long and short positions.