Supply-demand imbalance leads to continuous decline in cell prices, while film production schedules continue to drop [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM June 26 News:

Solar Cell

Prices

High-efficiency PERC182 cells (23.2%+ efficiency) were priced at 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Domestic demand was minimal, exports accounted for a high proportion, and some producers integrated production line resources based on order volumes.

Topcon183N cells (25%+ efficiency) had mainstream quotations at 0.23-0.24 yuan/W. Topcon210RN mainstream transaction prices were 0.26 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.255-0.265 yuan/W. Topcon210N cells were around 0.25-0.255 yuan/W. The overall downtrend continued, with segmented sizes showing: 183N previously fell sharply due to a sharp drop in orders but has now largely hit bottom, with price support from the wafer side. 210RN prices loosened due to month-end destocking pressure, while 210N prices also faced pressure from supply imbalances and were expected to decline this week.

HJT30% silver-coated copper (25%+ efficiency) recently stabilized at 0.35-0.36 yuan/W. Prices rose due to market demand fluctuations and cost control. HJT overall had limited direct sales, with integrated producers self-sufficient.

Production

Global production schedules in June were 57-58 GW, down 4-5% MoM. Cell supply tightened further due to weak demand, but the tightening was less than expected. Some producers further cut production for 183N mid-month, and June's actual output is expected to be adjusted downward.

Inventory

Last week, the inventory buildup pace slowed for export-oriented producers. As month-end approached, producers implemented stricter inventory management, and inventory levels were expected to pull back this week.

Module

Prices

Current module market price spreads widened. N-type 182mm mainstream transaction prices for centralized projects were 0.648-0.660 yuan/W, while N-type 210mm mainstream transaction prices were 0.663-0.675 yuan/W. TOPCon distributed 182mm module prices were 0.678-0.701 yuan/W, and distributed 210mm module prices were 0.683-0.706 yuan/W, all including freight.

Production

A few module producers had full orders in July, with output slightly increasing. Most module producers lacked sufficient orders and may gradually cut production from original schedules.

Inventory

Modules re-entered an inventory buildup cycle, with 182&183 modules accumulating inventory and 210 module demand also slowing down.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV-grade:

PV-grade EVA prices were currently 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. PV-grade POE was traded at 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film:

Currently, the mainstream prices for transparent EVA film with a weight of 420 grams are 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², for white EVA film with a weight of 420 grams are 5.67-5.75 yuan/m², for EPE film with a weight of 380 grams are 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and for POE film with a weight of 380 grams are 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production

The production schedule for PV-grade EVA in June decreased by 2.70% MoM, and the production schedule for PV film decreased by 3.1% MoM.

Inventory

Recently, some film enterprises have been stockpiling inventory, and petrochemical plants are in the destocking phase. Some petrochemical plants are expected to switch to producing PV-grade materials, and the supply-demand pattern for PV-grade EVA will gradually become looser.

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is 18.5-19.0 yuan/m², with glass enterprises reducing their quotes this week.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is 19.5-20.0 yuan/m², with glass enterprises reducing their quotes this week.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is 10.7-11.3 yuan/m², with glass enterprises reducing their quotes this week.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is 11.7-12.3 yuan/m², with glass enterprises reducing their quotes this week.

Production

Recently, some glass enterprises have intensified their production cuts, and expectations for further production cuts on the supply side are still increasing. Top-tier enterprises also have plans to suspend production.

Inventory

The inventory level of glass has further risen, with some glass enterprises approaching the point of inventory explosion, and the industry's inventory pressure has increased.