Tensions ease between Iran and Israel, and expectations of interest rate cuts strengthen, driving LME and SHFE copper prices higher together [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Jun 26, 2025 08:41

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[Tensions Ease Between Iran and Israel & Interest Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen, LME and SHFE Copper Rise Together] Macro side, Trump announced that he believes the war between Iran and Israel has ended, and the US will hold talks with Iran next week, not considering the nuclear agreement necessary. Market risk aversion sentiment eases, and the market generally expects the US Fed to soon resume its interest rate cut cycle. The US dollar index falls, supporting copper prices.

SMM June 26 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,692.5/mt, reaching a high of $9,738.0/mt and a low of $9,684/mt, before closing at $9,727.0/mt, up 0.65%. Trading volume reached 14,874 lots, with open interest at 286,436 lots. The overall trend fluctuated initially before fluctuating upward, with a pullback after a late-session surge. Overnight, the SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 78,600 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 78,740 yuan/mt and a low of 78,510 yuan/mt, before closing at 78,720 yuan/mt, up 0.36%. Trading volume reached 25,683 lots, with open interest at 175,229 lots. The overall trend fluctuated, surging initially, then pulling back before rising again, showing a fluctuating upward trend. On the macro front, Trump announced that he believed the war between Israel and Iran had ended, and that the US would hold talks with Iran next week, not considering a nuclear agreement necessary. This eased market risk-aversion sentiment. Additionally, the market widely expects the US Fed to soon resume its interest rate cut cycle, with the US dollar index falling, supporting copper prices. On the fundamental side, most enterprises have gradually completed their inventory clearance plans, with limited marketable supply currently available. It is expected that prices for some scarce supplies will rise today. Overall, with the US dollar falling significantly, copper prices are expected to be supported today.

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