Would the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz affect bauxite and alumina?
According to SMM's analysis, the impact on China is expected to be limited. China imports little bauxite via the Strait of Hormuz. China exports a small amount of alumina to the Middle East, but the volume is relatively small, totaling approximately 150,000 mt from January to May 2025, accounting for 13% of total exports.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, it is expected to affect alumina and bauxite imports to the Middle East.
The blockade may lead to an increase in crude oil prices, driving up ocean freight rates for bauxite and alumina. However, the impact on long-term contracted shipping prices for Guinea's bauxite is expected to be limited. Spot shipping freight rates may be affected, but the positive impact on bauxite prices is expected to be limited.
Some market participants assess that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked is low, and it is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the market.
